In Castilla y León, the political landscape is once again on the verge of change. This region was the first in Spain where the Partido Popular (PP) formed a coalition government with Vox, and now it faces the need to repeat that experience. The region’s president, Alfonso Fernández Mañueco, has made no secret of his desire to govern alone, but the lack of an absolute majority makes that impossible. Since 2019, he has had to seek partners—first Ciudadanos, and then the far-right representatives, who left the coalition in the summer of 2024.
Mañueco closed the parliamentary year by highlighting his team’s successes and criticizing the opposition for trying to undermine the PP’s position. He points to independent reports confirming the government’s effectiveness and seizes every opportunity to blame the central government in Madrid for the political crisis. Ahead of new elections, the regional leader is determined to use public dissatisfaction with the national government to his advantage.
Elections and calculations
Internal sources within the PP note that election results in neighboring Extremadura have prompted a reassessment of strategy. There, 43% of the vote would guarantee an absolute majority in Castilla y León, but in reality the region is divided into nine electoral districts, complicating matters. In the previous elections, the PP received 31.4% and 32 seats, while Vox won 13 seats with 17.64% of the vote. According to party analysts, the growth potential for both parties is limited, while PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party) faces increasing risks of becoming a marginal force.
Inside parliament, possible election dates are being discussed: March 1 or March 15. March 8, International Women’s Day, is excluded due to a ban on rallies on election day. If the vote is set for March 1, parliament would have to be dissolved as early as January 5, allowing officials to avoid uncomfortable hearings on the summer wildfires.
Balance of power
In 2026, the regional parliament will have 82 deputies, with 43 votes required for an absolute majority. According to party strategists, even in the most optimistic scenarios PP will not be able to secure more than 35 seats. Vox, despite lacking a prominent leader, may strengthen its position and outperform its 2022 result.
On the socialist side, the mayor of Soria, Carlos Martínez, ended the year with sharp criticism of Mañueco. He called four decades of single-party rule a ‘democratic anomaly’ and accused the current president of lacking transparency. Martínez hopes to increase PSOE’s seats to 34, but acknowledges that an absolute majority for any party is a utopia. His goal is to surpass PP in both votes and mandates to demonstrate the need for change.
Opposition stance
PSOE’s organization secretary, Daniel de la Rosa, suggests that PP agree in advance to let the party that gets the most votes form the government. He emphasizes that the socialist failure in Extremadura should not be repeated in Castilla y León, where PP has built up significant negative sentiment after years in power. PSOE’s internal polls point to a possible socialist victory, but without guarantees for forming a government.
Former Ciudadanos vice president Francisco Igea believes the situation in Extremadura complicates Mañueco’s hopes of securing a majority. He notes that PSOE risks losing influence, while leftist parties like Podemos and Izquierda Unida could capitalize on voters’ discontent and win additional seats. Igea is convinced that PP and its leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo will regret drawing closer to the far right, as this only strengthens Vox’s hand.
