Investment company A&G Global Investors shared its perspective on the current state of global markets, noting that concerns about a new tech bubble are exaggerated. Nevertheless, analysts warn that by 2026, stock exchanges are likely to face serious risks and heightened volatility. According to Chief Investment Officer Diego Fernández Elices, the market has largely adjusted to the possibility of a second Donald Trump administration, and many initial fears have dissipated. “There are almost always negative arguments for doing nothing, but the world is not falling apart, and tariffs have not turned out to be as frightening as they seemed,” he said.
Managing director Miguel Mayo added that, by analyzing a century of the S&P 500 index history, one can see the potential for a 40% drop. “Does this mean it will definitely fall? Not necessarily, but caution is needed,” the expert warned. He pointed to the rapid growth of the stock market, which has led to today’s situation of high valuations and a marked concentration of capital among a small number of tech companies.
Global risks and public debt
Mayo also painted a troubling picture of global finances. In 2005, the world’s twenty largest economies were divided into those with budget surpluses and those with deficits; now, all of them are running deficits. This scenario, which experts call ‘unchecked debt,’ is forcing the world to closely monitor interest rates and the growing need to print more money. Such a policy is unsustainable in the long run and will ultimately lead to ‘enormous’ fiscal and tax pressures, as governments will urgently need new sources of revenue.
Geopolitical Confrontation
Analyzing the geopolitical landscape, the company emphasized that in the coming years, the United States and China will set the tone. In their view, the European Union will be unable to keep pace and risks finding itself on the periphery, which will further exacerbate its internal functioning and relations among member states. As a result, the world will witness a rise in protectionism and de-globalization, driven by national interests and security concerns. These trends, in turn, will bring significant volatility to the markets.
Artificial Intelligence: Bubble or Reality?
Regarding the artificial intelligence topic, which has been actively discussed in the markets in recent weeks, Paradigma Value Catalyst fund manager Andres Allende was unequivocal. He stated that there is no bubble, but rather a “very noisy” narrative. “If this is a bubble like the dot-coms… then those who say so should leave the market,” Allende countered supporters of the theory that current valuations in the tech and AI sectors are unsustainable. He added that he considers calls to stay out of the market to be “dangerous.”
“There are many strong fundamentals for the stock market in the coming quarters, but also a great deal of pessimism and fear,” he noted, pointing out that panic indexes are at the same levels as last April when the trade war erupted. “Nvidia in 2025 is not Cisco in 1999,” he continued, explaining that these two historical moments are not comparable. In Cisco’s case, stock prices far outpaced profits, whereas with Nvidia, financial results fully justify the share price. “The market isn’t cheap, but it isn’t expensive either. We’re not at extreme bubble levels where everything will crash,” he concluded.
Bond and cryptocurrency yields
In the fixed income segment, asset manager Germán García-Mellado notes that debt instruments continue to offer “attractive yields” despite falling rates. “This asset has a crucial tailwind: very strong institutional demand,” he emphasized. He predicts a large volume of long-term issuances next year from both sovereigns and private companies. Regarding interest rate expectations, the expert believes the European Central Bank will keep rates around 2% in 2026, while the US Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut them as aggressively as the market expects.
Finally, A&G crypto asset manager Rubén Ayuso dispelled concerns caused by the recent drop in digital assets. “This is a healthy correction in a bull market; a 30% correction is something Bitcoin experiences every year,” he said, noting that this now presents a good buying opportunity. In his view, these assets have powerful catalysts such as the widespread adoption of cryptocurrencies within institutional settings. While hedge funds were among the first major investors, banks, pension funds, and insurance companies are now next in line—ensuring continued capital inflows.
Reference RUSSPAIN. A&G Banca Privada, founded in 1987, is one of the leading independent private banking institutions in Spain. The company specializes in managing significant private wealth, offering its clients financial advisory and asset management services. Its investment division, A&G Global Investors, manages investment funds. The company’s headquarters are located in Madrid, with additional offices in other major Spanish cities. A&G is known for its conservative approach and deep expertise in financial markets.
