Andalusia faces a brewing political storm as the Socialists prepare for new regional elections, with their leader María Jesús Montero forced to juggle several key roles. After defeats in Extremadura and a series of scandals involving former party officials, morale within the regional branch of PSOE is far from optimistic. Many party members admit: if they manage to repeat the 2022 result of 30 seats, it would already count as a success.
The situation is further complicated by ongoing investigations into corruption and harassment cases involving former close associates of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. It remains uncertain how far these proceedings will go—or how much they will impact the outcome of the upcoming elections. There is widespread anxiety within the party: no one can predict whether things will worsen after elections in other regions like Aragón and Castilla y León.
Leadership overhaul
Amid these developments, Andalusia’s Socialists have decided to back a new candidate. After Susana Díaz won in 2018 but failed to retain power, and Juan Espadas dropped to 30 seats in 2022, it is now Montero’s turn. Yet recent polls offer little hope for an easy win: according to the Andalusian Research Center, the party may secure only 25–28 seats and about 21% of the vote. For an organization that governed the region for nearly four decades, this looks like a disaster.
Within the party, they are in no hurry to release their own forecasts, preferring to emphasize that the gap with the Partido Popular (PP) in direct polls is smaller than in final calculations. Previously, analytics were handled by Antonio Hernández, but after his resignation amid scandal, the team was left without its usual strategist.
Five priorities
Montero simultaneously holds several key positions: she serves as vice president, finance minister, deputy federal secretary of PSOE, head of the Andalusian branch, and is the candidate for president of the autonomous region. This arrangement was chosen to avoid new internal conflicts after Espadas stepped down and the party failed to find a compromise candidate. Montero did not seek this role, but turned out to be the only option acceptable to all.
Staying in Madrid, she maintained influence and the ability to advance the region’s interests at the national level. Now, however, she has to speak more often about federal politics, which is not always to her advantage: scandals in the central government are automatically associated with her as well, not just with Andalusian affairs.
Double burden
Montero plans to remain in government until the regional leader Juan Manuel Moreno announces the election date. Early next year, she intends to present a draft budget and propose reform of the regional financing system. Her allies believe that successfully tackling these issues could earn extra points for Andalusia if better terms for the region can be secured.
В интервью на радио Монтеро подчеркивала, что ее работа в правительстве приносит пользу прежде всего Андалусии. Однако именно за это ее критикуют союзники по коалиции: лидер каталонских республиканцев Ориол Жункерас (Oriol Junqueras) обвиняет ее в том, что она больше заботится о региональной кампании, чем о министерских обязанностях.
A window of opportunity
Montero is convinced that the declining quality of public services, especially healthcare, gives the Socialists a chance to reclaim power in the region. However, most experts think it is more likely that the current regional leader will lose his absolute majority rather than PSOE winning outright. According to a major poll, over half of residents are dissatisfied with the government’s performance and with Moreno personally.
Montero’s main challenge is to bring back to the polls those voters who stayed home in 2022. Then, the Socialists received just 24% of the vote, but within a year their support in Andalusia grew to 33% in the parliamentary elections. The candidate’s team is counting on this reserve of half a million votes.
Internal fears
There is growing concern within the party: many fear an internal crisis could erupt after the elections if the results fall short of expectations. Some even warn of a potential “internal disaster” within PSOE’s Andalusian branch. However, skeptics argue that if the party drops to 26 seats, the consequences will be equally severe for everyone, regardless of their position.
