In the spring of 2024, the Bank of Spain published a forecast on the number of new homes needed to stabilize the market. At that time, the figure was 600,000 missing units. However, by the summer of 2025, the regulator revised its calculations: now it estimates a shortage of 700,000 units required to meet demand.
At a meeting of the Council of Economists, Bank of Spain head José Luis Escrivá presented updated data. According to these estimates, just between 2022 and 2024, the deficit increased by more than 400,000 apartments. The 2025 forecast predicts a further shortfall, exceeding 100,000 units. As a result, over the past decade, the gap between supply and demand has reached its highest levels.
Half of the total shortfall is concentrated in the country’s most active regions: Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Alicante, and Malaga. These areas have seen the steepest rise in property prices. According to the Bank of Spain, current housing prices match levels last seen in 2004, highlighting the scale of the problem.
In the second quarter of the year, the average price per square meter on the open market rose by 10.4%, reaching €2,093.5. This is the third-highest figure in the past twenty years; only in 2008 were prices higher. In the social housing segment, the price neared €1,200 per square meter, setting a record for this category.
Experts from the Bank of Spain note that housing demand is driven by several factors. These include population growth due to migration, a decrease in average household size, urban concentration, and interest from foreign buyers. Meanwhile, the supply of new properties remains limited due to a shortage of suitable land for development, a lack of skilled workers, the rise of short-term rentals, as well as investment challenges and regulatory uncertainty.
The Bank of Spain warns that if the gap between the number of new homes and the number of new households persists, it could become a serious obstacle to the country’s economic development. Other major financial institutions, including CaixaBank and the European Central Bank, have reached similar conclusions. Their representatives emphasize that without an increase in housing supply, affordability for the population will decline and mortgage conditions may worsen.
In July 2024, CaixaBank CEO Gonzalo Gortázar stated that the housing situation could lead to significant economic difficulties unless urgent measures are taken. He called for the reduction of bureaucratic procedures and the expansion of land available for development. European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos also pointed out that imbalances in the real estate market threaten the sustainability of economic growth.
According to recent surveys, housing has become one of the most pressing issues for residents of Spain. The Bank of Spain does not expect the situation to improve in the near future and insists on the need to create a stable legislative framework to prevent social consequences.
