In recent months, the real estate market in Catalonia has undergone changes that have not gone unnoticed by industry professionals. After a period of rapid growth, when home sales increased at double-digit rates, the market has now entered a phase of more moderate development. According to data from the National Institute of Statistics (INE), in September 2025, the number of transactions rose by 3.8% compared to the same period last year. This indicates that market activity remains, but the pace is no longer as impressive as a year earlier.
Experts note that this trend may be a sign of market stabilization after several years of overheating. In particular, the president of the Association of Financial Real Estate Experts (AEFI), Leonardo Cromstedt, emphasizes that despite sustained growth, the market has begun to show signs of slowing down. In his view, this is a natural process that helps prevent sharp price spikes and fosters a more stable environment for buyers and sellers.
Cautious optimism
Many specialists believe that a moderate slowdown is actually beneficial for the sector. Excessively rapid growth in both prices and transactions could have led to overheating and then a sharp decline. Now the market has a chance to restore balance between supply and demand. This is especially important amid the ongoing shortage of affordable housing and rising demands for quality.
Mercedes Blanco, CEO of Vecinos Felices, notes that buyers are facing real difficulties in finding suitable properties. In the first half of 2025, interest in purchasing grew by 73% compared to the previous year, but there were only 2.5 properties available for every completed transaction. This market tension is gradually easing, as confirmed by recent INE data: September saw a noticeable increase in deals, but the growth rate is no longer as rapid.
Seasonal and Price Influences
Carlos Balado, professor at OBS Business School and director at Eurocofín, attributes the slight slowdown in activity to the traditional summer lull. Nevertheless, September 2025 set a record for that month since data collection began in 2007, second only to July in terms of transaction volume. This indicates that interest in real estate in the region remains high despite a moderation in growth rates.
In August 2025, Catalonia saw a slight correction: the number of transactions fell by 0.6%. Experts see this as a sign that the market is moving toward a more sustainable growth trajectory. This trend is especially evident in Barcelona and its suburbs, where demand remains strong, but transaction growth is no longer as high as at the start of the year.
Regional characteristics
In certain areas of Catalonia, such as Girona and the Costa Brava coast, the situation is unique. Price pressures persist here, and rental restrictions may impact the number of property sales. In these regions, buyers are increasingly facing a shortage of available properties, which pushes the price per square meter up and forces many to either abandon their plans to buy or look for alternatives.
Carlos Balado warns that if the gap between property prices and household incomes continues to widen, some prospective buyers may leave the market. Even now, concerns about housing affordability are growing among analysts, and pressure on family budgets is increasing. According to forecasts, the situation is unlikely to stabilize before 2027, when supply is expected to start catching up with demand.
New rules of the game
The Catalonian real estate market faces new challenges in the near future. Among them is the introduction of a progressive scale for the property transfer tax (Impuesto de Transmisiones Patrimoniales, ITP), where the rate will depend on the value of the property. A special 20% tax is set for major property owners, which could affect the structure of transactions and investor activity.
Experts agree: despite the slowdown, the market will remain lively and dynamic. However, both buyers and sellers will have to adapt to new realities—from tax changes to stricter housing quality requirements. In these conditions, those who are ready for change and able to quickly adjust to the new rules will come out ahead.
If you didn’t know, CaixaBank is one of Spain’s largest banks, actively operating in the mortgage lending market and providing financial services to both individuals and businesses. INE (Instituto Nacional de Estadística) is the main government agency responsible for collecting and analyzing statistical data in the country. The AEFI association brings together experts in real estate and finance, while Vecinos Felices is a well-known company specializing in property management and consulting for home buyers and sellers.
