The issue of legalizing hundreds of thousands of migrants has suddenly taken center stage in Spanish politics. For many in the country, this is more than just another initiative—it’s a decision with the potential to reshape the balance of power in parliament and impact the daily lives of millions. Amidst instability and constant political maneuvering, each such agreement becomes a litmus test for the government’s true priorities.
The agreement between the government and Podemos to legalize around 500,000 migrants has become not only the focus of fierce debates, but also a key factor in the effort to maintain a parliamentary majority. Authorities hope this move will not only fulfill previous commitments but also strengthen their position ahead of new challenges. In the near future, additional powers on migration issues are expected to be transferred to Cataluña—a demand insisted upon by both Podemos and representatives of Junts.
Parliamentary maneuvering
Recent events in the Congreso have highlighted just how fragile the political balance can be. The failure of the vote on the so-called ‘social shield’ came as an unexpected blow to the government. The bill included, among other measures, pension indexation, but was rejected through the joint efforts of PP, Junts, and Vox. This decision became part of a broader strategy to pressure the opposition and attempt to preserve unity among allies.
At the same time, the Council of Ministers approved an agreement with Podemos, paving the way for the mass legalization of migrants. For Ione Belarra’s party, this marks their first major success in a year, while for the government, it offers a chance to remove one of the main obstacles to transferring migration powers to Catalonia. Previously, the legislative project on this issue had stalled due to Podemos’s stance, as they demanded not only legalization but also changes to the document’s wording.
Secret agreements
Interestingly, the details of the agreement between Minister Félix Bolaños and the leader of Podemos were negotiated in complete secrecy. The authorities allowed Podemos to announce the compromise, giving the party a chance to showcase its political influence. As a result, not only were amendments to the draft law agreed upon, but also a new procedure for its consideration in parliament.
One of the sticking points was the language around ‘threats to identity’ and ‘security’ in the migration context. Podemos representatives insisted on amending these phrases, arguing they were discriminatory. In the end, the government made concessions to bring Junts closer and resume negotiations on other key issues.
The coalition puzzle
In recent months, the government has been actively building a complex system of alliances with various political forces. With Junts, agreements have already been reached on measures against repeat offenses, support for tenants, and expanding Catalonia’s international presence. Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares personally signed agreements with representatives of the Generalitat on cooperation within UNESCO and the World Tourism Organization.
Negotiations with PNV focus on transferring five key powers, including security matters, as well as speeding up the transfer of ten additional areas. Recently, the Prime Minister met with Basque leader Imanol Pradales, who announced a bilateral commission on the transfer of airport and migration functions.
Financial and social stakes
An agreement on autonomous financing has been signed with ERC, and negotiations are underway to transfer management of all income tax revenues. Bildu received a separate package of measures to support the ‘social shield,’ even though these pertained to a decree rather than a law.
All these steps are part of a large-scale plan to preserve a parliamentary majority and ensure stability until 2027. However, there are still serious obstacles to implementing these goals. One of them is the issue of amnesty for Carles Puigdemont, a decision pending in European and Spanish courts. The authorities hope the process will accelerate and not hinder the adoption of the budget.
Unexpected twists
The failure of the ‘social shield’ is attributed to the government deliberately including controversial provisions in the document to put the opposition in a difficult position before pensioners. The issue is scheduled to be reconsidered soon, but in a narrower format—focusing solely on pensions.
Additional tension arose from recent incidents on the railway, including the accident in Adamuz and a crisis in the Catalan rail sector. These events forced Junts and ERC to temporarily distance themselves from the government. In response, two Adif executives were dismissed to ease political tensions and allow allies to save face.
