Spain is entering a tense election season. As early as December, residents of Extremadura will head to the polls, followed by Castilla y León, then Andalucía, and possibly Aragón. These regional elections serve as a prelude to the major national and municipal campaigns officially scheduled for 2027. However, politicians and analysts are increasingly doubtful that Pedro Sánchez’s government will actually remain in office until the end of its term.
In the corridors of parliament, various scenarios are being discussed, ranging from combining the general and Andalusian elections in the summer of 2026 to a possible “super Sunday” with simultaneous voting across the entire country. The situation is further complicated by the high-profile arrest of former PSOE organizational secretary José Luis Ábalos, who now openly criticizes the president and his inner circle. Despite this, the government insists there will be no early elections and that any opposition attempts to launch a vote of no confidence are doomed to fail.
Sánchez is urging his supporters to remain calm and resist pressure from the Partido Popular (PP). Senior government officials insist Ábalos’s accusations are unfounded and that rumors about the president’s wife influencing the Air Europa bailout have already been investigated by the courts, which found no evidence to support them.
Rising tensions and new alliances
Nevertheless, the political climate in the country is becoming increasingly tense. Even though the general elections are still some time away, a series of regional campaigns is already shaping public sentiment and could shift the balance of power. In Extremadura, the Socialists are bracing for significant losses, in Castilla y León they hope to hold their ground, while in Andalucía, the People’s Party risks losing its absolute majority and may have to seek support from Vox.
Vox, for its part, is projecting confidence and expanding its influence, especially after successful negotiations with PP in the Valencian Community. The party aims to become a key player in forming future coalitions, and its leader, Santiago Abascal, is already setting his sights on a vice-presidential post if they succeed in the general elections. In exchange for its support, Vox is demanding that PP adopt a hardline agenda on migration and climate issues.
The People’s Party acknowledges that it has not been able to contain Vox’s growth, but believes the priority is to maintain the overall dominance of the right. Within the party, insiders note that in traditionally left-leaning regions, the conversation is no longer about whether the left or right will win, but about the potential for a PP-Vox coalition.
The Left Bloc and response to the challenges
PSOE and Sumar are confident that Vox’s strengthening could trigger a backlash from voters concerned about rising xenophobia and the denial of climate issues. The left hopes to repeat their success of 2023, when Vox’s rise to power in a number of regions mobilized their supporters and delivered better-than-expected results.
Rhetoric among political leaders is becoming increasingly campaign-oriented. Alberto Núñez Feijóo has once again called on Sánchez’s allies, especially Junts, to back a vote of no confidence for the sake of new elections, stating that he is not seeking power at any cost but wants voters to make the decision. However, the government considers this scenario impossible: neither Junts nor other parties are prepared to vote with PP and Vox against the sitting president.
Within PSOE, it is noted that PP’s attempts to establish contacts with Catalan and Basque parties only deepen divisions. Nevertheless, despite public confrontations, behind-the-scenes negotiations continue on crucial issues—from transferring powers to the regions to reforming regional financing.
Economy, reforms, and the battle for the agenda
Although political strife is taking center stage, economic arguments remain key for the government. Sánchez and his team are confident that steady growth, the ability to increase spending, and new social initiatives are their main assets. The recent decision to raise public sector salaries by 11% by 2028 was a significant move, even if it was overshadowed by the Ábalos scandal.
Authorities emphasize that despite the lack of new budgets, the government has the resources to implement large-scale programs, especially in housing and increasing the minimum wage. In the coming months, new initiatives are expected that should strengthen the left’s position ahead of upcoming elections.
At the same time, the opposition continues to organize mass protests, but the government believes these demonstrations do not lead to real change. Divisions are growing within the coalition and among PSOE’s allies, yet no one is interested in an early dissolution of parliament—all prefer to maintain their influence and complete ongoing reforms.
Negotiations and hidden conflicts
Junts, ERC, PNV, Podemos, and even Sumar are increasingly vocal in their criticism of the government’s policies, but behind closed doors they continue to discuss the details of important agreements. PNV is negotiating to finalize the transfer of autonomous powers, ERC is pushing for a new financing model for Catalonia, and while official contact with Junts is frozen, informal dialogue continues.
In September, the government managed to set the agenda thanks to international initiatives and domestic reforms, but in November the Abalos scandal once again diverted public attention. Nonetheless, the government remains confident: positive decisions are reaching citizens, even if the media pays little attention to them.
Overall, Spain is entering a period where every move by politicians and parties could be decisive for the country’s future. The question of early elections remains open, but for now, the government is focused on continuing its work and delivering on its plans.
