Ourense is set to reach 37ºC this week, a temperature more typical of August than late September. With autumn barely underway, Spain is experiencing its third spell of unusual heat this month. The Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) says temperatures are running 5ºC above normal for this time of year, with an even bigger difference in the north.
Four autonomous communities are under weather warnings. Extremadura, Cantabria and Galicia are on yellow alert for high temperatures. The north, which usually escapes late-season heat, is now facing dry, stifling air. In Galicia, A Coruña, Ourense and Pontevedra are under yellow warnings issued by AEMET. The Canary Islands are also under alert, underscoring how widespread the heatwave is.
This heat is set to linger. Jorge Rey, a young meteorologist known for his Cabañuelas-based forecasts, says summer-like weather could last through September and perhaps into November. He says, "Until December we do not expect a truly cold and wintry spell," so the first real snowfall may come later than normal. AEMET’s own forecasts point in the same direction, with the warm spell expected to last at least several more days.
Rain remains scarce. A few showers might appear on Sunday, but the outlook is mainly for more dry, hot days. Some northern areas could see highs of up to 39ºC. Even as October nears, the models show little change. The heat hangs on, and it still feels like summer. Official bulletins say a strong anticyclone is keeping skies clear and rain scarce in the north. There’s no sign of a real cooldown yet.
The first week of October might bring a small drop in highs, but it will still feel too warm for the season. Jorge Rey predicts a "very warm autumn in Spain," with the heat stretching across the mainland and islands. He also says winter 2026 could be milder than usual, with real cold not arriving until December.
What’s driving this heat? Several factors are at play. El Niño and warmer Pacific waters are making the east and north drier. The west and south should get more humidity and, later, heavier rain. Rey expects the first big storms in mid-November, especially in the west and south. He marks November 14 as a likely date for major rainfall.
For now, the heat continues. In the south, temperatures could hit 38.5ºC. A strong anticyclone is blocking cooler air and keeping rain away. Murcia and Alicante are set for even more intense heat. The Canary Islands may see episodes of calima as October starts.
There may be some relief. Between October 10 and 12, during the Puente del Pilar holiday, showers and cooler air could move in from the west. Thunderstorms might hit the Mediterranean coast and bring some relief to the north. But the break will be brief: temperatures are expected to return to abnormal highs by the end of the holiday.
By mid-October, conditions might finally shift. AEMET’s latest report and Rey’s forecast both say a mass of African air will push temperatures up around October 12. After that, more clouds and light rain could reach the north. A bigger change is expected around October 23 to 24, when the anticyclone weakens and storms start to move in. November should bring cooler, wetter weather, with the first DANAs (isolated high-altitude depressions) shaking up the pattern and ushering Spain toward winter.
Mountain areas could see the first real snow and frost as autumn turns to winter, but these will likely come later than usual. For now, heat remains the basic story. Spain’s autumn is breaking the usual pattern, and the country faces a long summer that just won’t end. This ongoing anomaly signals changing climate patterns in Spain, requiring residents and officials to adapt.
