Diesel has risen 68% before tax since the war began. Tax relief has softened the increase for drivers, but transport groups are demanding fresh support before the current measures expire.
Diesel prices in Spain could rise by as much as 24 cents per litre from 1 October if the Government does not approve a new support package. The warning comes after the fuel became 68% more expensive before tax since the war in Iran began on 28 February. More than 18 million vehicles across Spain still depend on diesel.
That makes the dispute a practical problem for drivers and businesses. The final pump price has risen 29% since the conflict began, from €1.45 to €1.87 per litre. The pre-tax price has climbed from €0.82 to €1.378, according to the latest data from the Comisión Nacional de los Mercados y de la Competencia (CNMC).
Diesel has been rising faster than petrol in Spain, prompting the authorities to maintain a larger September discount for diesel: 20 cents per litre, compared with five cents for petrol.
Tax measures have kept the full increase from reaching consumers. A package in force from 22 March to 30 June cut fuel VAT from 21% to 10%. It also reduced the hydrocarbon tax to the minimum permitted in the European Union.
During that period, the retail price rose 18% to €1.506 per litre. The pre-tax price rose 26% to €1.039.
The second relief package took effect on 1 July. It ended the VAT reduction but kept a cut in the hydrocarbon tax. That cut was set at 15 cents per litre in July and reduced to 10 cents in August.
By the end of July, diesel at the pump had risen 24% since 28 February, reaching €1.798 per litre. The pre-tax price had increased 53% to €1.257.
August brought little change in the underlying fuel cost. The retail price reached €1.867 per litre by the end of the month, up 28% since the war began. The pre-tax price stood at €1.264. The near-stable monthly figure came after tax measures had already absorbed part of the increase.
By the middle of September, official and aggregated market data placed Spanish diesel at roughly €1.87–€1.90 per litre. Independent reporting said the market increase had brought the price close to the level seen before the discount was expanded, effectively eroding much of the benefit for drivers.
The Government extended the diesel discount to 20 cents per litre in September after July inflation for the fuel exceeded 15%. Petrol received a smaller discount of five cents.
The current package is due to expire on 30 September. More aid in October remains possible because diesel and petrol prices continue to rise. Reports from Spanish and European energy publications put diesel prices in mid-September at approximately €1.87–€1.90 per litre, above the levels recorded at the beginning of the month.
Transport organisations are calling for action before the deadline. The Confederación Española de Transporte de Mercancías (CETM) says ending the measures could add up to 24 cents per litre to the price of diesel.
Fenadismer has formally requested an urgent meeting with Carlos Cuerpo, the Minister of Economy, Commerce and Enterprise, to agree direct fuel aid.
The pressure reaches beyond freight operators. Anfac and Ideauto estimate that diesel remains essential for 57% of Spain's cars, light commercial vehicles, industrial vehicles and buses.
Carlos Cuerpo met with Yolanda Díaz, Arcadi España and Elma Saiz, along with CEOE, Cepyme, UGT and CCOO, to review the conflict two weeks before the fiscal measures expire.
The figures leave little room for an easy exit from the current policy. Without continued relief, the pre-tax surge will reach drivers and transport companies more directly. With relief, the public budget must keep absorbing part of the shock.
For households and businesses still tied to diesel, the 30 September deadline is more than an administrative date. It may be when the real cost of the conflict becomes more visible.
