Junts is expected to reject both housing decrees in Congress. The move would leave Sánchez without support for his rental reform and hand the opposition a new political weapon.
The Cabinet approved the two measures on 29 September and sent them to Congress for an urgent vote, according to Moncloa. One of the decrees has also been published in the BOE, according to reports citing the official gazette. Congress is due to vote on both this Friday.
A rejection would put the Government's plan to extend some rental contracts for up to three years at risk. It would also leave Pedro Sánchez facing another parliamentary defeat. Housing has become a test of whether his coalition can pass major social measures.
The vote is close.
Junts' official statement stopped short of confirming its final vote. It asked the Spanish Government to withdraw both decrees. That withdrawal is not expected. Sources within Junts say the party will reject both measures if they stay on the agenda.
Both texts are royal decree-laws. Congress must ratify them. If it does not, their legal effect could end.
Junts has seven deputies, making its position decisive in the current parliamentary configuration. Reuters has described the Catalan party as a kingmaker in the vote.
Carles Puigdemont won a divided internal debate. Secretary general Jordi Turull and some mayors had backed a position similar to the PNV's. They wanted to support the first decree and reject the second.
Puigdemont secured support from Míriam Nogueras, Albert Batet and Joan Canadell, according to sources from the executive. The disagreement grew because the Government submitted two housing measures instead of one.
That split matters.
Several influential figures outside the executive also backed the decision, including lawyer Gonzalo Boye. Their objections center on the legal design of the measures and their effect on property owners in Catalonia. Junts says the package could weaken the incentive for small landlords to keep homes on the rental market.
A legal report commissioned by Junts says the decrees encroach on the powers of the autonomous communities, including the Generalitat. It also says the texts push aside Junts' housing proposals. The party argues that the Catalan administration could have to cover the costs when tenants stop paying rent.
Junts presents the measures as a failure to protect small landlords. It warns that they could reduce the supply of rental homes. Reuters has reported that the party considers the package harmful to housing supply and wants the Government to prepare a new text.
The PNV is reported to be ready to support one decree and reject the other. That position would be enough to break the Government’s package even without Junts, because both royal decree-laws require parliamentary ratification.
Junts says homes removed from the rental market would move into sales instead. In its assessment, many of those properties would stay out of reach for middle-class and working families. Buyers with greater financial capacity would have more opportunities.
The party argues that a policy meant to improve access to housing could make homes harder to find and harder to afford.
The pressure failed.
The Government had hoped that public anger after the eviction of Maricarmen would push Junts and the PNV to support at least the first decree. That calculation has failed. A defeat would hurt Sánchez's attempt to rebuild his parliamentary majority and show that the legislature remains politically viable.
Moncloa has chosen confrontation instead of withdrawal. Sources in the Executive say PP, Vox and Junts must show whether they stand with citizens or with speculators. Ministers from PSOE and Sumar have accused their opponents of voting against people who need housing solutions.
The strategy puts responsibility for the likely defeat on the parties withholding their votes. No final agreement had been reached with Junts or the PNV. Moncloa says the measures would strengthen tenant protection and impose tighter housing rules.
The Government's message has already shaped its next campaign line. Yolanda Díaz, Mónica García and Pablo Bustinduy have framed the vote as a choice between protecting people and defending speculation.
Junts fears that an early election could hurt its position before the municipal elections.
That fear remains.
At Moncloa, Pedro Sánchez was asked whether he would call elections if both decrees fell and the lack of a majority became undeniable. He avoided that scenario and said he remained reasonably optimistic about approval.
Junts' position has made that forecast harder to sustain. Reports published on 1 October said the party was leaning toward rejecting both decrees and asking the Government to withdraw them.
ERC deputy Etna Estrems called the decision miserable and questioned how Puigdemont could later return to Girona. In Junts' grassroots messaging groups, the decision was welcomed.
Members feared that opposition from Aliança and concern among small landlords could cost the party support. They also approved of making the Spanish Government's position harder.
The numbers now matter.
Sánchez's Government has not presented national budgets during the legislature because it lacks the votes to pass them. It may now be unable to approve the social policy it describes as an urgent response to Spain's main public concern.
Junts has turned that weakness into a direct test of power. The Government can still campaign against the parties voting no. The failed negotiation remains its responsibility.
The first measure would let some tenants with existing contracts request an additional extension of up to two years. It would also preserve limits on rent increases. The second would create an automatic extension system for residential leases unless the parties give notice in advance.
For now, the decrees look less like a settled legislative solution than a public display of Sánchez's unstable majority.
