A rapidly deepening low could bring gusts above 100 km/h to Galicia and the Cantabrian coast between Thursday and Friday. Waves may reach 10 metres as temperatures fall.
Thursday is expected to bring minimum temperatures 1 to 5 degrees below average across much of the northern interior, with local anomalies reaching 10 degrees below normal. The cold will coincide with a fast-deepening low beneath the polar jet, which could drive very strong winds in the north. Meteored’s analysis puts the Atlantic depression near western Europe on 22 October, with its centre close to the British Isles and pressure around 990 hPa.
Gusts may exceed 100 km/h in Galicia and around the Cantabrian Sea. Waves could reach 10 metres in those areas, with the largest forecast for exposed stretches of coast. Meteored says fronts linked to the low are expected to bring heavy rain to northwestern Galicia, while rainfall will be more irregular elsewhere in the country. Forecasts name the system Austen. It is expected to remain over the Atlantic rather than cross the Iberian Peninsula directly.
The cold will be most noticeable overnight and in the morning. Temperatures are forecast to fall below 5 degrees in Castilla y León, inland Galicia and the Cantabrian communities, as well as in southern Aragón and inland Catalonia. Frost is also expected in mountain areas.
Soria, Teruel, León and Burgos are among the cities forecast to record lows of 2 to 5 degrees. The same range is expected in Valladolid, Zamora, Salamanca, Palencia, Ávila, Pamplona and Logroño. Frost could reach -6 ºC at high elevations and in the Pyrenees. Other northern mountain ranges, Sierra Nevada and El Teide are forecast to see temperatures from -2 to 0 ºC.
Thursday’s daytime highs will stay below 20 degrees across the northern half of the Peninsula. Oviedo, Lugo, Ourense and León are forecast to reach 15 degrees, while Burgos is set for 14 ºC and Santiago de Compostela for 13. The Guadalquivir valley will be warmer, with Sevilla forecast to reach 26 degrees and Córdoba 24 ºC.
Wednesday will be calmer than the days before it, though rain is forecast in Galicia, the Cantabrian communities and northeastern Catalonia. Showers are also expected in the more mountainous Canary Islands. Highs in the south of the Peninsula could reach 25 degrees; temperatures elsewhere are expected to change little.
The State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) has issued yellow warnings for coastal conditions in Asturias, Cantabria, Catalonia and the Basque Country. Gusts of 50 to 60 km/h are possible in the affected areas. Tarragona province also has a yellow warning for gusts that could reach 70 km/h. For Thursday, 22 October, Aemet forecast westerly and northwesterly winds, with strong intervals and possible very strong gusts along the Cantabrian coast, in the Ampurdán and around the lower Ebro.
Between Thursday and Friday, the low is forecast to deepen rapidly beneath the polar jet and move towards Europe. Meteored expects rain from its associated fronts to spread unevenly beyond Galicia, while the strongest winds are forecast along the northern coast. Aemet’s Thursday outlook also included rain in the Cantabrian area and the Pyrenees, with precipitation possible in parts of Catalonia and the Mediterranean region.
