In 2025, Spain completed around 92,000 homes while about 245,000 new households formed, leaving a gap of roughly 153,000 units. The Banco de España estimates that 755,000 homes were already missing by 2025 and that another 300,000 could be needed between 2026 and 2028. The shortfall could so pass one million homes by 2028. Prices rose 12.7% last year as the supply gap fed into the market.
Soledad Núñez, subgovernor of the Banco de España, recently described insufficient supply as basic to the housing problem. She spoke at an event organised by Forbes.
Her estimate puts the accumulated shortage since 2021 at about 755,000 homes, with a further 300,000-unit increase projected by 2028.
Property demand is only part of the pressure. Spain has gained 3.1 million residents since Pedro Sánchez came to power, and the number of households has risen from about 18.5 million in 2018 to 19.8 million now.
Immigration has driven much of the population growth. Smaller households have also increased the number of homes needed for the same population, including through a rise in one-person households.
The financial crisis left some spare capacity. Unsold and unfinished properties remained available, while existing homes absorbed part of the demand. After Covid, that cushion was no longer enough.
The housing shortage has become a visible social and political issue alongside its impact on the market. Reuters and DW have reported on protests over rising housing costs and eviction cases, highlighting pressure on tenants and the crisis’s political sensitivity.
The shortage barely appeared in expert reports before 2020. In 2021, BBVA Research put the accumulated deficit at 176,000 homes as demand picked up after the pandemic.
By 2025, BBVA Research had raised its estimate to 712,000 units. CaixaBank Research calculated 734,000, while the Banco de España put the figure at 755,000. The three estimates use different methods but point in the same direction.
The pressure is concentrated in a small group of provinces. Madrid, Barcelona, Alicante, Valencia, Murcia and Málaga accounted for 52.5% of the accumulated deficit through 2025, information from the Banco de España.
These areas have recorded strong population growth, while new housing has failed to keep pace with household creation.
CaixaBank Research says Spain would need to complete around 330,000 homes every year for the next five years to absorb the existing shortage. That would quadruple the current completion rate.
Analysts point to limited building land, labour shortages, complex planning procedures and regulatory barriers. The obstacles are practical and political.
Reuters has linked the worsening crisis to a shortage of new homes relative to demand. Prices and rents have risen faster than wages.
Euronews has also reported that housing construction remains well below levels reached during earlier building cycles, helping explain the slow supply response.
BBVA Research projects that the deficit could start to decline in 2030. Until then, limited supply is expected to keep prices under pressure.
The Banco de España recorded the strongest annual price increase since 2007 in 2025. Analysts expect prices to keep accelerating in 2026 and 2027.
Spain is adding residents and households faster than it is producing homes. The provinces carrying most of the shortage face the sharpest pressure. Unless construction rises from its current level and planning barriers fall, the million-home threshold will show the scale of the supply failure.
