Catalonia is currently engaged in a lively debate over the region’s future should its population reach 10 million. This issue is being actively discussed both in parliament and among the public, sparking arguments over the direction the autonomy should take in the coming decades.
Population growth in Catalonia in recent years has been largely driven by migration. As of 2024, the region’s birth rate remains low—just 6.6 newborns per thousand residents, nearly half of what it was twenty years ago. At the same time, annual population growth has exceeded 100,000 since 2022, primarily due to incoming migrants. This trend was previously seen in the early 2000s, when the region surpassed 7 million inhabitants for the first time.
Catalonia’s economy is largely oriented toward the service sector, which employs about 60% of the workforce, with tourism playing a key role. However, this structure leads to low wages and creates challenges for many residents. Issues such as a lack of affordable housing, declining quality of public services, and reduced use of the Catalan language in daily life are becoming increasingly evident.
Despite a relatively low unemployment rate — 8.1% — social challenges remain relevant. The authorities of Catalonia acknowledge the need to prepare for a possible population increase and are developing measures to adapt infrastructure and the social sector. Priorities include expanding the housing stock, investing in social housing, modernizing the transport system, and developing industry. Plans also include airport expansion and updating administrative processes.
Experts note that large-scale agreements between political and business elites are essential for the sustainable development of the region. Only joint efforts can diversify the economy, raise wage levels, increase the share of renewable energy sources, stabilize housing prices, and strengthen the education and healthcare systems. Supporting the Catalan language as an element of cultural identity remains an important task.
The discussion about Catalonia’s future should not be reduced to a simple confrontation between supporters and opponents of population growth. The key issue is not the number of new residents, but the region’s ability to adapt to change and ensure a decent standard of living for all. In the context of global mobility and demographic shifts, it is important to avoid populist solutions and seek a balance between economic development and social stability.
While some in society express concerns about the potential loss of cultural identity and rising social tensions, experts emphasize that only coordinated action and long-term strategies will help Catalonia address these challenges and make use of new opportunities for development.
