In economics, it is generally accepted that prices are set where the interests of buyer and seller converge. But in Spanish politics, especially when it comes to securing support from Junts, things are far more complicated. There are no transparent rules here, and the cost of a deal can change right before your eyes. For the government, this becomes a game with unknown stakes, where each new round of negotiations brings new demands and conditions.
Recent events in Madrid have shown that the central government is once again ready to discuss terms of cooperation with Junts, even though just a month ago the party refused to support the government. Pedro Sánchez has openly stated his willingness to engage in dialogue, and their joint vote in Congress on the recidivism issue only underscores how serious those intentions are. However, no one in the government can say for certain what the price of such support will be or where the next deal might lead.
Political bargaining
Junts, led by Carles Puigdemont, acts like a player on the stock exchange: the value of their votes is directly tied to how much the government needs their support. The greater the need, the higher the price. And as the past few years show, Junts’ appetite is only growing. With each new agreement come fresh demands, and this process seems to have no end.
For the government, this means constantly walking a tightrope between making concessions and trying to retain control of the situation. Each time an agreement is reached on one issue, Junts sets out new demands. This dynamic turns negotiations into an endless spiral, making it difficult to predict when or how things will finally be resolved.
Risks for the government
A particularly worrying factor is that the government never knows in advance what else Junts might demand. This creates a sense of uncertainty and instability, as key decisions on major issues end up in the hands of a small but influential political force. The issue of the budget, for example, remains unresolved: while agreement can sometimes be found on individual initiatives, compromise on strategic questions may prove out of reach.
In this scenario, the government is forced to act blindly, with no clear idea of how far it might have to go to stay in power. Every new round of talks brings the risk that the price of support will be too high and the consequences unpredictable.
Electoral uncertainty
Another important factor is how these deals will impact future elections. For PSOE, the question is pressing: is it worth making concessions in exchange for a few months of stability, when it’s unclear how this will affect the vote? Junts’ support could turn out to be a short-term win—or lead to significant losses at the ballot box.
No one can say for certain how voters will react to yet another concession. Moreover, there are no guarantees that Junts will acknowledge the government’s efforts or support it when it matters most. This makes the political game even riskier and more unpredictable.
Ongoing uncertainty
As a result, the government finds itself in a position where it has to pay for support without knowing the exact cost or where the next deal will lead. Every step forward is met with new demands, and the prospect of political stability becomes increasingly unclear. The question of how much longer the support of Junts will cost remains unanswered—and it is this uncertainty that defines Spain’s political agenda today.
