Spain is heading into a turbulent start to August 2026, with temperatures dipping noticeably during the first week before rebounding rapidly midweek. The west of the peninsula is expected to stay close to seasonal norms, while most other regions will likely see above-average temperatures, extending the persistent heat of recent summers.
Rainfall during the week of August 3 to 9 is expected to be scarce, with showers largely confined to Galicia and nearby areas. Occasional storms may develop in mountainous zones, but widespread precipitation is unlikely. The pattern matches longer-term climate projections cited by Spain’s State Meteorological Agency (AEMET), which point to rainfall becoming more concentrated in time and droughts lasting longer.
For the week of August 10 to 16, meteorologists warn that forecast reliability drops sharply. Current projections point to a strong likelihood of higher-than-normal temperatures across the country, raising the prospect of another intense heatwave. Precipitation trends remain unclear, though historical patterns for this period suggest generally dry conditions. Forecast confidence typically falls beyond the short range, so projections may change as the period approaches.
Uncertainty rises further in the third week, from August 17 to 23. Early indications suggest temperatures will return closer to seasonal levels in most areas, though some regions may still feel lingering warmth. Rainfall is also tentatively forecast in the northeast, extending along the Mediterranean coast to the Balearic Islands, which could offer a respite from the dry spell. Late-summer weather remains unpredictable, making precise planning difficult, particularly for agriculture and tourism.
The broader summer picture shows a contrast between prolonged dryness and sudden, localized downpours. AEMET’s post-season figures put mainland Spain’s average temperature at 24.5°C, 0.3°C above the previous record set in 2025. That made summer 2026 the hottest in the agency’s observational series, which began in 1961. Average summer precipitation was 39.6 millimetres, the third-lowest total in the series. June ranked as the third-driest on record, while July was the driest. Storm activity in August, particularly during the second half of the month, temporarily interrupted the dry pattern.
Those seasonal averages do not rule out intense local rainfall. AEMET storm forecasts have included warnings across eight autonomous communities. Cataluña and the Region of Murcia faced orange-level alerts, while Galicia had a wind warning. The agency also forecast locally very heavy rain and storms from Andalucía through southeastern Spain to Cataluña. These regional contrasts show how generally scarce rainfall can coexist with short-lived, hazardous downpours.
In recent years, Spain has grappled with extreme weather, including heatwaves and wildfires. The effects of prolonged dry spells have been particularly evident in regions such as Girona, where the aftermath of major fires continues to shape local landscapes and communities, as documented in a report on the recovery of Les Gavarres forest.
August in Spain typically brings high temperatures and limited rainfall, especially inland and in southern regions. The Atlantic coast, including Galicia, is more likely to see occasional showers, while the Mediterranean and Balearic areas can shift sharply between dry spells and storms. Residents are advised to monitor updated forecasts, since conditions can change rapidly and disrupt travel or daily life, including agricultural work. Adapting to increasingly variable summer weather requires preparedness and flexibility across the country.
