During the final three laps at Motegi, Jorge Martín could barely open the throttle while his Aprilia was upright. The rear tyre had overheated on the left side before the problem spread towards the centre. That was the warning.
The rider told DAZN he reduced the power and calculated that a 1.1-second margin on the last lap would be enough. It was not. Other riders caught him, and he now says a repeat on Sunday could force him to retire.
Martín was also angry with himself after touching the green at Turn 10. He had tried to get the motorcycle cleanly out of the corner and used more lean angle than planned. The mistake cost him a position he believed he could keep.
The error mattered, but it was not the basic threat to his weekend.
Tyre wear cut the Aprilia's performance through the Sprint. Martín said he could no longer accelerate normally, even when the bike was upright. Without that loss of grip, he believes he would have stayed close to Marc Márquez until the finish.
Passing Márquez would still have been difficult, Martín admitted. The gap should have been much smaller.
Motegi gave teams a difficult starting point. The circuit had a new surface, and Michelin brought a revised rear-tyre specification. The changes left teams with limited reliable data to predict long-run degradation, as noted in Michelin and MotoGP technical briefings. Friday running had already shown that Martín's balance changed between the medium and soft compounds. He felt good on the medium in the morning, then found a different balance in the evening. The soft tyre cost him speed.
The Sprint confirmed those concerns. Crash.net and Motorsport.com described the tyre trouble as a wider Motegi problem, not one limited to Martín's Aprilia. Francesco Bagnaia reported similar difficulties, while Marc Márquez experienced a smaller change in rear-tyre behaviour.
Bagnaia had warned before the Sprint that last year's Japanese race offered little useful guidance. The asphalt and tyre package had changed. He expected the fight to centre on the top seven while teams learned how much grip the new surface could provide.
The soft tyre is not a realistic Sunday choice for Martín. The medium compound still needs to be assessed. If it produces the same drop in grip, the Aprilia rider says he may have no option but to retire.
Martín's comments point to a problem shared by several front-running riders, though its severity varied. Marc Márquez suffered less than Martín. Bagnaia also felt the rear tyre deteriorate.
That distinction matters. The lost position came from one mistake at Turn 10. The larger concern appeared in the final three laps, when Martín could no longer apply power. The error cost him immediately; the tyre issue could shape the entire Sunday race.
Marc Márquez's Sprint victory added to the sporting pressure. Motorsport Week reported that Márquez extended his advantage in the championship battle after Martín received a late penalty and the classification changed.
Martín still showed enough pace to stay near Márquez when the tyre held. Pace alone will not protect him if the medium fails in the same way. Aprilia must find a setup that lets him accelerate normally until the finish.
