Madrid recorded a minimum of 5°C overnight, while temperatures in Palencia and Salamanca fell to -5°C, as did those in Logroño and León. Some areas in the north and west have reached -7°C as colder conditions spread across Spain.
The forecast then turns to rain. AEMET expects a front to bring cloud and precipitation to the north-west from Friday, with weak snow above 1,600 metres in the western Cantabrian Mountains. It also forecasts heavy rain in La Palma and says significant showers are possible on Galicia’s Atlantic coast. AEMET’s early-November outlook also included very strong, persistent showers in the Mediterranean, especially along the Catalan coast and the Balearic Islands. Strong or very strong showers were also forecast in mountainous areas of the Canary Islands.
For the weekend, AEMET anticipates Atlantic storms and substantial rainfall across wide areas of mainland Spain and the Canary Islands. Jorge Rey’s Cabañuelas forecast points to the same unsettled pattern, but his rainfall estimates are separate from AEMET’s official forecast. In coverage published on 30 October, ABC reported Rey’s expectation of a more active front from around 8 November, affecting the western half of Spain and the Mediterranean. Its effects in the Canary Islands were expected to be weaker. A 4 November report by 20minutos attributed to Rey a forecast of 100-200 litres per square metre at different points of the Iberian Peninsula for a humid front expected to enter through Portugal during the weekend of 7-8 November. One litre per square metre is equivalent to one millimetre of rain.
Rey predicts more than 200 litres per square metre in western Andalusia or northern Extremadura. He also warns that La Palma could receive 100 litres in 24 hours on Sunday. Moderate storms are possible in Sevilla and Madrid, as well as Cáceres and Vigo. These are forecasts, not recorded rainfall totals. Separately, AEMET issued warnings for parts of the Barcelona and Tarragona coasts for 2-3 November, specifying up to 40 mm in one hour and 80 mm in 12 hours. The agency classified the one-hour rainfall warning as an important hazard and the 12-hour warning as a low hazard, with estimated probabilities of 40%-70%. Storms could accompany the rain, particularly in Barcelona.
Rey says a deep low is expected to arrive from Sunday afternoon, with rain potentially continuing across the country until Wednesday 11 November. He also forecasts strong winds, particularly in the west, followed by southerly winds from Monday. His further outlook points to a possible DANA around the middle of the month and colder air; that remains a forecast rather than a confirmed development. Sport reported Rey’s expectation of more unsettled weather in the second half of November, including stronger winds and colder air. La Gaceta de Salamanca also attributed to him a forecast of colder conditions later in the month. El Periódico de Ceuta described the cabañuelas dates as estimates that require revision as they approach and noted that the method lacks scientific backing for long-range weather prediction. AEMET’s seasonal outlook for November 2026 to January 2027 gave a very high probability to average temperatures being in the warm tercile across Spain, while allowing for isolated cold episodes.
Minimum temperatures in Madrid were higher than in the northern cities, but the broader outlook remains cold: AEMET says maximum temperatures are unlikely to exceed 24°C in parts of the south and will reach only about 19°C in the north. In unrelated Madrid coverage, RUSSPAIN.COM reported Javier Milei’s Madrid visit, including his meeting with Vox leader Santiago Abascal.
AEMET’s yellow-level warnings for Thursday cover northern Galicia, south-eastern Catalonia and the Balearic Islands.
