The OECD has lifted its growth forecasts for Spain in 2026 and 2027, citing strong domestic demand. It also expects inflation to run higher than previously forecast.
Spain's economic outlook has improved in the OECD's latest forecast, despite continued uncertainty linked to the conflict in the Middle East. The organisation now expects Spain's gross domestic product to grow by 2.6% in 2026. That is 0.4 percentage points above its June forecast.
The change follows strong domestic demand in the second quarter. The OECD's latest Economic Outlook gives Spain a stronger near-term outlook than it did in June. Its forecast for the following year remains more modest.
Spain’s growth was estimated at around 2.8% in 2025, meaning the OECD still expects a slowdown in 2026 despite raising its forecast to 2.6%.
The OECD has also raised its forecast for 2027. It now expects growth of 1.8%, up 0.1 percentage points from its previous estimate. The figure still points to slower growth after 2026, rather than a long period of acceleration.
The inflation outlook has moved in the other direction. According to Infobae and other Spanish reports on the OECD update, headline inflation is expected to reach 3.7% in 2026 before easing to 3.4% in 2027. Both figures are well above the earlier estimates. The 2026 forecast has risen by 0.4 percentage points, while the 2027 forecast is up by 0.5 points.
The OECD also projects core inflation at 3.4% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027. Funcas’s September 2026 panel likewise points to persistent price pressure, forecasting average inflation of 3.4% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027.
The result is a mixed forecast. Spain is expected to grow faster than the OECD previously thought, but prices are also expected to rise more quickly. The growth upgrade rests on domestic demand. It does not reflect a drop in uncertainty linked to the conflict in the Middle East.
Bolsamanía noted that the 2.6% forecast would leave Spain growing at more than twice the expected pace of the eurozone. The forecast still shows a slowdown in 2027, when growth is expected to ease to 1.8%.
The OECD has changed both parts of its forecast at the same time. It sees firmer activity in Spain through 2026, followed by slower growth in 2027. It also expects inflation to stay above its earlier forecasts in both years. Geopolitical tensions and energy prices remain risks.
The revision is not an isolated reassessment. Heraldo de Aragón, laSexta, El Periódico and Telemadrid reported the same broad picture: stronger growth backed by domestic demand, with inflation proving more persistent than expected.
For households and businesses, the message is mixed. The growth figures point to stronger economic activity. The inflation forecasts suggest that price pressure will be higher than the OECD expected in June. The report details provided here cite no additional measures or policy responses.
The OECD's revision is an upgrade to Spain's growth outlook, not a broad improvement across the board. Domestic demand has lifted the 2026 forecast to 2.6%, but higher inflation limits the benefit of that stronger growth. Spain is entering the period with better activity prospects and a less favorable outlook for prices.
