The OECD expects Spain's gross domestic product to grow by 2.6% in 2026, 0.4 percentage points above its June forecast, even as uncertainty linked to the conflict in the Middle East continues. The upgrade follows strong domestic demand in the second quarter.
The OECD's latest Economic Outlook gives Spain a stronger near-term outlook than its June forecast, though its projection for the following year remains more modest. Spain's growth was estimated at around 2.8% in 2025, so the OECD still expects a slowdown in 2026 despite raising its forecast.
The OECD has also raised its forecast for 2027. It now expects growth of 1.8%, up 0.1 percentage points from its previous estimate. That points to slower growth after 2026, rather than an extended acceleration.
The inflation outlook has shifted in the opposite direction. Infobae and other Spanish reports on the OECD update say headline inflation is expected to reach 3.7% in 2026 before easing to 3.4% in 2027. Both figures exceed the earlier estimates: the 2026 forecast has risen by 0.4 percentage points, while the 2027 forecast is up by 0.5 points.
The OECD also projects core inflation at 3.4% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027. Funcas’s September 2026 panel points to persistent price pressure as well, forecasting average inflation of 3.4% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027.
The forecast is mixed: the OECD expects Spain to grow faster than it previously thought, alongside a quicker rise in prices. Domestic demand underpins the growth upgrade; uncertainty linked to the conflict in the Middle East remains.
Bolsamanía noted that the 2.6% forecast would leave Spain growing at more than twice the expected pace of the eurozone. The projection still points to a slowdown in 2027, when growth is expected to ease to 1.8%.
The OECD expects activity in Spain to strengthen through 2026, then slow in 2027. Inflation is forecast to stay above its earlier projections in both years. Geopolitical tensions and energy prices remain risks.
Heraldo de Aragón, laSexta, El Periódico and Telemadrid reported the same broad picture: domestic demand is supporting stronger growth, while inflation is proving more persistent than expected.
For households and businesses, the growth figures point to stronger economic activity, while the inflation forecasts suggest price pressure will exceed the OECD's June expectations. The report details provided here cite no additional measures or policy responses.
The revision improves Spain's growth outlook, without pointing to a broad improvement across the board. Domestic demand has lifted the 2026 forecast to 2.6%, while higher inflation limits the gains from stronger growth. Spain faces better prospects for activity and a less favorable outlook for prices.
