A European project is designing an early warning system for Spain and Portugal. It will combine climate data with veterinary and public health records to support earlier action against canine leishmaniosis.
Phlebotomine sand flies spread canine leishmaniosis across parts of southern Europe. Researchers in Spain and Portugal are now designing a system to estimate where transmission risk may rise. The PLANET4HEALTH project will combine climate conditions, environmental monitoring and animal health records. Its first case study will give veterinarians and public health authorities short-term forecasts for defined areas.
The system is not an operational alert network yet. Researchers will develop, refine and evaluate it before they assess whether it can support decisions in practice. That gap matters. The system's value will depend on the quality of its predictions and on whether veterinary services and health authorities can use them easily.
Temperature, humidity and seasonal patterns influence the activity of phlebotomine sand flies, so climate data can help identify periods when transmission conditions are more favourable.
Leishmania infantum causes canine leishmaniosis. Phlebotomine sand flies transmit it. The disease is endemic in the Mediterranean basin, and dogs are the main domestic reservoirs linked to human infection. European veterinary reviews, including literature in Veterinary Parasitology-Regional Studies and Reports, continue to describe the infection as an important zoonotic concern in southern Europe.
The researchers say climate change, environmental degradation and increased movement of people and animals may expand the distribution of vectors. They may also intensify transmission risk. Temperature, humidity and seasonal patterns affect sand-fly activity, while rainfall and soil moisture provide further environmental signals.
The planned system will use historical and near-real-time information. Researchers will assess climate data alongside surveillance records on sand flies. Veterinary inputs will include Leishmania serology results, records of canine leishmaniosis cases and information about domestic dog populations.
Data will come from national and European sand-fly surveillance initiatives. Other sources include veterinary clinical and diagnostic databases in Spain and Portugal and national public health monitoring systems. Formal agreements with the organisations that provide the information will govern access.
The veterinary sector is also supporting the project. Epidemiological contributions will come from IVC Evidensia Portugal and LETI Pharma. Hospitals, clinics and university centres in both countries are involved as well.
The main gap identified in the available European literature is not the complete absence of surveillance data, but the lack of an already operational system that combines vector monitoring, climate records and veterinary evidence into practical alerts for Spain and Portugal.
The analytical stage will use statistical models and machine learning. Researchers plan to describe seasonal vector behaviour and estimate the risk of canine leishmaniosis. They will also produce short-term forecasts for defined geographical areas and develop future projections.
The model will connect environmental signals with veterinary evidence. It will not treat either source on its own.
Spain is moving toward predictive risk management in other fields too. A related report showed how another Spanish sector is testing data-driven tools before threats reach critical systems. The health project has a different purpose and evidence base.
Users will test the system through questionnaires, online feedback and co-creation workshops. Veterinarians, public health authorities and other end users will assess its usefulness, feasibility and ease of use in stages.
The evaluation matters as much as the modelling. A technically advanced forecast has limited practical value if the people responsible for animal and public health cannot interpret or apply it. The model is not live.
PLANET4HEALTH is proposing more than a database or a weather map. It is building a One Health framework that links vectors, animals, people and environmental conditions in one risk assessment.
The project's strongest feature is that integration. The decisive test will be whether its alerts are clear enough to support earlier preparation against canine leishmaniosis. They must also be adaptable enough for other endemic regions.
The wider European surveillance context adds weight to that goal. Recent attention has focused on earlier detection and integrated monitoring. That context does not change the project's current research and pilot status.
