Jorge Rey's cabañuelas point to storms in the Levante on October 10 and 11. The east of Spain could then warm up on Monday the 12th as African air moves in.
Northern Spain faces a different start to the weekend: cooler weather and light rain are expected.
The change could come quickly: storms first, heat later.
AEMET's special warning put the probability of strong, persistent showers above 70% in the eastern half of the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands, particularly the Levante.
For people planning the long weekend, the eastern coast carries the clearest risk of travel and event disruptions. Jorge Rey describes “stormy days” in the Levante. Northern regions should get a weaker spell of rain, along with cooler temperatures.
AEMET's wider outlook calls for rain and showers across much of Spain between October 5 and 12. Stronger precipitation is possible in northern and mountain regions. The Mediterranean coast and the Balearic Islands are also in the outlook. AEMET's special-warning coverage described a potentially hazardous episode: very intense precipitation could cause local flooding and waterways to overflow, while some areas faced warnings of unusually high accumulations over short periods. The east, including the Levante, and the Balearic Islands were most exposed, rather than Spain as a whole.
Monday's expected change would not bring autumn cold. Jorge Rey expects an African air mass to push temperatures higher across Spain, with the biggest rise in the east of the peninsula. The holiday Monday could feel very different from the stormy start to the break.
Reports citing AEMET also describe rain and instability, followed by higher temperatures in parts of the Mediterranean coast. Timing matters more than any single day's forecast.
AEMET's seasonal outlook points to a warmer pattern. For October, November and December 2026, the agency assigns a very high probability to Spain's average temperature staying in the warm tercile compared with the 1991 to 2020 reference period.
That seasonal outlook does not rule out local storms. Jorge Rey expects genuinely wintry cold only around December. He also expects snow to arrive later.
His forecast describes an unusually warm season, with stable periods interrupted by rain. Persistent cold is not expected soon.
The forecasts cover different time scales. The immediate weekend outlook is unsettled in the Levante, while the seasonal signal remains warm across Spain.
Rain and storms are expected at the start of the holiday break. Temperatures may climb by its final day.
EFE and Infobae reported that temperatures between October 5 and 12 were expected to stay broadly close to seasonal averages. Coastal areas and islands could remain above normal.
October may end more calmly. Jorge Rey expects another anticyclone to bring pleasant weather to much of Spain. The western Cantabrian coast could still see changes as fronts carrying cooler, more humid air pass nearby.
Travel plans could shift quickly.
Spain is also following a busy national agenda, and regional weather can affect movement and plans, as this earlier Spain report shows. The immediate weather concern is narrower.
The Levante and the Balearic Islands face the greatest risk of disruption. Northern Spain should be cooler and wetter, but the forecast puts less emphasis there on extreme rainfall.
The east faces the most changeable start. Northern areas should prepare for cooler, light rain, while Spain as a whole remains under a warm seasonal trend.
