Jorge Rey expects severe storms in the Levante during the October 12 holiday weekend. AEMET also points to an unusually warm final quarter of 2026.
Jorge Rey's cabañuelas point to stormy conditions in the Levante on October 10 and 11. The east of Spain could then turn warmer on Monday the 12th as African air moves in.
Northern Spain faces a different start to the weekend. Cooler weather and light rain are expected there.
The shift could be fast. Storms first, heat later.
AEMET’s special warning for the eastern half of the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands assigned a probability above 70% to strong and persistent showers, with particular attention to the Levante.
AEMET's special warning assigned a probability above 70% to strong and persistent showers in the eastern half of the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands. The Levante received particular attention.
For people planning the long weekend, the eastern coast carries the clearest risk of travel and event disruptions. Jorge Rey refers to "stormy days" in the Levante. Northern regions should see a weaker spell of rain, with cooler temperatures.
AEMET's wider outlook calls for rain and showers across much of Spain between October 5 and 12. Stronger precipitation is possible in northern areas, mountain regions, the Mediterranean coast and the Balearic Islands.
The northern pattern is different.
Monday's expected change would not bring autumn cold. Jorge Rey expects an African air mass to push heat into Spain, with the largest rise in the east of the peninsula. The holiday Monday could feel very different from the stormy opening of the break.
Reports citing AEMET also describe rain and instability followed by higher temperatures in parts of the Mediterranean coast. The timing matters more than any single day's forecast.
AEMET's seasonal outlook points to a warm background. For October, November and December 2026, the agency assigns a very high probability to Spain's average temperature remaining in the warm tercile compared with the 1991 to 2020 reference period.
The warnings described a potentially hazardous episode rather than ordinary passing rain: very intense precipitation could produce local flooding and overflowing waterways, while some areas were warned about unusually high accumulations over short periods. The most exposed zone was the east and the Levante, together with the Balearic Islands, not Spain uniformly.
That seasonal outlook does not rule out local storms. Jorge Rey expects genuinely wintry cold to arrive only around December. He also expects snow to be delayed.
His forecast describes an unusually warm season with stable periods broken by rain. Persistent cold is not expected to arrive quickly.
The two forecasts cover different time scales. The immediate weekend outlook is unsettled in the Levante. The seasonal signal remains warm across Spain.
The practical concern is timing. Rain and storms are expected at the start of the holiday break. Higher temperatures may arrive by its final day.
EFE and Infobae reported that temperatures between October 5 and 12 were expected to stay broadly close to seasonal averages. Coastal areas and islands could remain above normal.
October may end more calmly. Jorge Rey expects another anticyclone to bring pleasant weather to much of Spain. The western Cantabrian coast could still see changes when fronts carrying cooler, more humid air pass nearby.
Travel plans could change quickly.
Spain is also following a busy national agenda in which regional weather can affect movement and plans, as shown by this earlier Spain report. The immediate weather concern is narrower.
The Levante and the Balearic Islands face the greatest risk of disruption. Northern Spain should be cooler and wetter, but the forecast places less emphasis there on extreme rainfall.
The available information points to a divided forecast. The east faces the most changeable opening. Northern areas should prepare for cooler light rain, while Spain as a whole remains under a warm seasonal trend.
October 12 is not bringing winter early. Storms may give way to heat.
