Spain is once again witnessing a political intrigue: the FAES foundation, closely linked to former Prime Minister José María Aznar, has launched sharp criticism at Pedro Sánchez and expressed doubts about the Partido Popular (PP)’s ability to win the upcoming elections. While recent polls predict success for the PP, FAES is cautious and warns that Sánchez could once again end up in the prime minister’s seat.
In an editorial titled “The Last Card,” the foundation stresses that the current stage of Sánchez’s rule is the most dangerous yet. According to the authors, voters may quickly forget recent scandals and mistakes, especially after a series of regional elections where the Socialists have already suffered losses and, as FAES believes, sacrificed their ‘pawns’ to preserve their national standing.
Doubts About a Victory
FAES openly voices skepticism that the PP leader will automatically become the next prime minister, even if the polls look promising. The foundation believes Sánchez is still pursuing a strategy of: lose now to win later. They argue this could work if voters tire of constant political battles and decide to give the Socialists another chance.
There is particular concern about the role of Vox, which FAES describes as a “lifeline” for Sánchez. According to the foundation, the far-right rhetoric of Vox enables the socialists to frighten voters with the “monster” of the extreme right, thereby reinforcing the prime minister’s position. Vox leader Santiago Abascal is demanding key posts in regional governments for his party, further complicating the situation for the Partido Popular.
Economy and Public Opinion
FAES notes that the economic agenda also works in Sánchez’s favor. The government’s constant assurances of economic growth and improved indicators, according to the foundation, distract the public from potential risks associated with continuing the socialist course. The foundation fears that voters may overlook threats which, in the view of FAES, stem from the PSOE’s continued hold on power.
These threats include granting new opportunities to political forces aligned with Basque nationalism and the possibility of transforming the country’s territorial structure. FAES argues that if the socialists remain in charge, it could lead to increased influence of radical movements and a revision of autonomy principles.
Historical Parallels
In its editorial, the foundation points out that, in their view, PSOE long ago ceased to be a pillar of constitutional order, having made a “Faustian bargain” with nationalists to hold onto power. FAES, however, fails to mention that Aznar himself, in 1996, entered into agreements with Catalan nationalists to secure support for forming a government. It was at that time, incidentally, that the system for financing the autonomous regions was changed: the share of income tax revenue allocated to the regions rose from 15% to 30%.
This historical context adds a layer of irony to today’s accusations against the Socialists. Yet such paradoxes are commonplace in Spanish politics. Every new round in the struggle for power is accompanied by accusations of betraying national interests and making deals with those who were considered enemies just yesterday.
Internal party anxieties
FAES does not hide the fact that anxiety is growing within the Partido Popular. Despite optimistic forecasts, victory is far from assured. There are too many variables, and voters are behaving too unpredictably. Meanwhile, the Socialists continue to consolidate their position, seizing every available opportunity to maneuver.
In this climate, the Partido Popular is forced to navigate between pressure from Vox and the need to maintain its own identity. Any misstep could cost the party victory—and, with it, the chance to change the country’s political course.
Risks and expectations
The situation remains tense. According to FAES, unless the PP changes its strategy, Sánchez could very well hold on to power. However, Spanish politics has repeatedly shown that predicting the outcome of elections here is nearly impossible. Every twist in events can upend the balance of power in just a matter of weeks.
For now, all that remains is to watch as the main political players prepare for a decisive showdown. And perhaps, right now, the groundwork is being laid for future alliances and unexpected developments that are sure to surprise Spaniards more than once.
