Spain’s political scene is once again at the center of tension, as the opposition goes all in by organizing a series of regional elections that could prove a major test for Pedro Sánchez’s government. In the coming months, four autonomous communities — Extremadura, Aragón, Castilla y León, and Andalucía — will become battlegrounds for fierce clashes between left and right. The Partido Popular (PP) has a clear strategy: strike blow after blow at PSOE to deprive Sánchez of political maneuvering space and undermine his authority ahead of the decisive battle for power.
This time, the opposition is acting far more decisively than four years ago, when an attempt at early elections in Castilla y León ended in failure and internal scandals for them. Now, under the leadership of Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the PP is counting on “four historic defeats for the left,” which they believe should demonstrate the irreversibility of Spain’s political shift to the right.
Betting on defeat
Within the PP, members make no secret of it: if Sánchez’s former press secretary Pilar Alegría fails in Aragón, and Vice President María Jesús Montero cannot turn the situation around in Andalucía, the blow will fall not just on regional leaders, but on the government itself. The party is convinced that a string of left-wing failures in the regions will create unbearable pressure on Sánchez and his inner circle.
The Socialists, on the other hand, believe that the Extremadura scenario will not repeat itself. In that case, the candidate was under investigation and his reputation had been tarnished by scandals, which, according to PSOE, led to their defeat. Now, ministers affirm, stronger candidates are taking the stage, and the government is ready to defend its achievements to the end. Their rhetoric carries confidence: “We have plenty to show voters — from economic successes to reforms in healthcare and education.”
Financial Dispute
One of the main sticking points has been the reform of the autonomous communities’ funding system, initiated by Montero. The PP calls it the Socialists’ “fatal mistake” and believes it will only spur voters to push for a change of power. Montero, meanwhile, insists that the reform will bring the regions additional billions of euros earmarked for healthcare, education, and housing. The question remains whether PP’s regional leaders will accept these funds or prefer to stick to the party line.
The president of Andalucía, Juanma Moreno, is in no hurry to reveal his position but is confident the reform will not pass in Congress. At the same time, he calls the government initiative an “own goal” and a sign of growing nervousness among the Socialists. In Aragón, President Jorge Azcón is betting on public discontent over funding for Catalonia and believes he can mobilize voters against the model proposed by Madrid.
Internal Divisions
Tensions are running just as high within the left. In Aragón, Podemos and Izquierda Unida (IU) failed to agree on a single candidate, raising the risk of a split vote. In Extremadura, by contrast, left-wing unity has paid off to some extent, but elsewhere this success has not been replicated. In Andalucía, IU leader Antonio Maíllo calls for the parties to unite but concedes, “We have nothing more to discuss—each will go their own way.”
In Castilla y León, the Socialists hope to capitalize on voter fatigue after 40 years of PP rule. PSOE candidate Carlos Martínez is campaigning on criticism of the region’s “democratic anomaly” and promises to “stand as a barrier to the right.” Even within PSOE, however, there is division over financing reform: Martínez considers it unfair to his region and is demanding revisions.
Vox and New Challenges
While PP and PSOE lock horns, the Vox party continues to gain momentum. Confidence is high within its ranks: voters are weary of the old parties, and their own popularity is rising amid a crisis of political representation. Vox remains tight-lipped about its government plans, but hints that if its votes prove decisive, it will push hard for its demands.
In Aragón, Azcón does not rule out having to strike a deal with Vox after the election, as already happened in Extremadura. In Castilla y León, PP leader Alfonso Fernández Mañueco is aiming for a third term, but admits that regional stability will largely depend on Vox’s behavior—an unpredictable factor that has caused problems before.
A Society at a Crossroads
Experts note that each of these regional campaigns has its own characteristics, but the general trend is clear—Spanish society is shifting to the right, and Vox is emerging as the main beneficiary of this process. According to polls, the party is outpacing Sumar and drawing votes not only from PP but also from PSOE. The crisis of representation that began with the 15M protests is only deepening, and more Spaniards no longer see themselves reflected in the existing parties.
Ahead lie months of political turbulence, with not only the fate of individual regions at stake but also the future of the entire country. PP is betting on a series of left-wing defeats, PSOE hopes to mobilize its supporters, while Vox is preparing to seize on any mistake by its rivals. Spain stands on the brink of change, and the outcome of this struggle is impossible to predict.
