The latest sociological survey by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS), led by José Félix Tezanos, has again shown a noticeable advantage for the socialists. Despite a string of headline-making events in recent weeks, including the arrest of former minister José Luis Ábalos and high-profile sexual harassment allegations, the PSOE maintains its lead, outpacing Partido Popular (PP) by 9 percent.
In the December barometer, the socialists received 31.4% of the vote, down 1.2 points from the previous month. The conservatives of the PP held steady at 22.4%, showing no change compared to November. After a sharp drop for the PP from May to October, their situation has stabilized, and the gap between the two main parties has narrowed for the second month in a row.
The third force
Vox, led by Santiago Abascal, remains the third most popular political force in the country. However, in December its support fell by 1.2 points, with 17.6% of voters now prepared to back the party. This marks the first significant decline after a series of modest gains since September.
Sumar, led by Yolanda Díaz, on the other hand, has strengthened its position. The party’s rating rose by 0.7 points, reaching 7.8%. As a result, the gap between Vox and Sumar is now nearly 10 points, underscoring the staying power of the right despite internal fluctuations.
Support trends
Support for Podemos also increased slightly: the party received 4.1% of the vote, up 0.1 points from November. Despite scandals involving the Socialists and the arrests of high-ranking officials, Spain’s electoral landscape remains relatively stable. The main players are maintaining their positions, and changes in the ratings are largely cosmetic.
At the same time, the poll was published shortly after the head of the CIS appeared in the Senate, where he had to answer questions about the independence and credibility of the center’s work. Tezanos insisted that his team does not receive instructions from the government and that their forecasts closely match actual election results. He also emphasized that criticism of the CIS is political rather than scientific.
Political Context
The December barometer was released during a difficult month for PSOE. In addition to the arrest of Ábalos, the Socialists found themselves in the spotlight due to investigations into cases of sexual harassment, particularly involving Paco Salazar. Nevertheless, the party’s electoral support decreased only slightly, and the PP was unable to capitalize on the situation to boost its own ratings.
Overall, the polls indicate that voters are not yet ready to dramatically change their preferences. Even against a backdrop of high-profile scandals and legal proceedings, Spain’s political landscape remains stable, and the balance of power between the main parties has shifted only slightly.
