The results of a recent poll in Aragón could mark a turning point for all of Spain. For the first time in many years, the socialists are on the verge of a historic defeat, while right-wing parties are steadily gaining support. These changes could shift the balance of power not only in the region but also at the national level.
According to the study, the PSOE, led by Pilar Alegría, may secure only 17 or 18 seats in the regional parliament. This would be the lowest result in the party’s history in Aragón. Meanwhile, the Partido Popular (PP), headed by Jorge Azcón, is consolidating its lead and could achieve a majority with the support of Vox, which is showing impressive growth.
Глубокий сдвиг
Polls show that 57% of the region’s residents are confident in Azcón’s victory, while only 20.5% believe in Alegría’s chances. Such a gap clearly points to a rightward shift in electoral sentiment. If projections are confirmed, PSOE will match or even surpass its negative record of 2015, when the party won 18 seats. This time, the left faces almost no competition: Podemos is disappearing from parliament, while Chunta and Izquierda Unida (IU) maintain only minimal presence.
Aragón is often called the ‘Spanish Ohio’ because of its ability to reflect national trends. The region now shows a clear dominance of right-wing forces: PP and Vox together could gather more than half the votes. Notably, Vox is close to overtaking the socialists in seat count in some districts—something that seemed impossible not long ago.
The left’s failure
In 2015, the success of Podemos took many by surprise, but now the situation has changed dramatically. Pablo Iglesias’s party is losing all its ground, with its electorate partly moving to other left-wing forces that are unable to significantly impact the final outcome. Chunta and IU can only hope for 3–5 seats, while nationalists are gaining influence thanks to a drop in support for the PSOE.
At the same time, Vox, led at the regional level by Alejandro Nolasco, has nearly doubled its results. The party is securing up to 13 seats and is becoming a key player in shaping the future coalition. In two out of three districts, Vox trails the Socialists by just one seat, and in some areas, the gap has almost disappeared.
Strategies and alliances
For the PP, the task is clear: maintain the lead and prevent any weakening of its position. However, even with a confident victory, Ason will need Vox’s support to form a government. Alternative options with Teruel Existe and PAR do not provide the necessary majority. As a result, the fate of the region may be in the hands of the far-right, who have already blocked the budget and triggered early elections.
The national leadership of the PP, including Feijóo, is actively involved in the campaign, visiting all three provinces. The main goal is to mobilize supporters and prevent a loss of votes. Meanwhile, Vox is running an aggressive campaign, covering dozens of cities and towns to secure its gains and widen the gap from its competitors.
Influence of new players
The emergence of the party ‘Se Acabó la Fiesta’ led by Alvise Pérez adds an extra layer of intrigue. Although the party does not enter parliament, it siphons off a portion of votes from Vox, curbing its growth. Nevertheless, Vox remains the most dynamically developing force, attracting not only its former supporters but also some voters from PSOE and PP.
Chunta, on the other hand, benefits from the decline of the Socialists: a significant part of former PSOE supporters now vote for the nationalists. The leader of Chunta, Jorge Pueyo, actively leverages his image as an independent politician, earning the party additional seats, especially in Zaragoza and Huesca.
Smaller parties and their role
Aragón Existe–Teruel Existe and IU retain limited influence but could become important in coalition building. Former deputy Tomás Guitarte aims to play a key role, but without support from major parties, his options are limited. PAR, despite its long history, risks disappearing entirely from parliament, which would be a serious blow to regional politics.
Overall, polls do not predict any sensations on election night. Most residents of the region have already made up their minds, and no unexpected twists are anticipated. However, the very fact of such a sharp transformation of the political landscape generates interest and concern among observers across the country.
In recent years, Spain has repeatedly witnessed dramatic shifts in its regional parliaments. For example, in 2023 a similar turn took place in Castilla y León, where right-wing parties gained an absolute majority for the first time in many years. Catalonia and Madrid have also seen unexpected successes by new political forces, prompting a reevaluation of traditional coalitions. These developments indicate that the country’s electoral climate is becoming increasingly unpredictable, and regional elections often serve as a catalyst for change at the national level.
