In 2025, a new system for regulating the olive oil market will come into effect in Spain. The Ministry of Agriculture has approved rules that will allow for up to one-fifth of the produced oil to be temporarily withdrawn from the market if there is a risk of oversupply. The aim is to prevent a collapse in prices and protect the interests of producers.
However, this mechanism will not be activated this season. The reason is simple: production volumes and reserves do not exceed the threshold required to trigger the measure. Its activation requires the combined stock and new harvest to be above 120% of the six-year average. Currently, forecasts point to 1.3 million tons, rather than the necessary 1.6 million.
Why is the new measure needed?
Recent years have shown just how volatile the olive oil market can be. Weather anomalies, shifts in supply and demand, and external factors have all led to sharp price swings. The introduction of a temporary withdrawal mechanism will allow for swift responses to potential crises and help prevent situations where oil prices fall below production costs.
For farmers, this means greater confidence in the future. In the past, they risked having to sell their harvest at a loss, but now they will have a tool to protect their income. For consumers, this measure guarantees a stable supply and helps prevent shortages down the line.
Producers’ and experts’ perspectives
Agricultural organizations believe that the new rules benefit all market participants. They will help not only to stabilize prices, but also to preserve the industry’s structure. At the same time, some industry representatives are calling for additional measures. In particular, there is discussion about restricting imports of oil from countries where quality and safety standards are lower than those in Spain.
Experts point out that it’s important not only to regulate volumes, but also to pay attention to product quality. It is proposed that lower-grade oils should be the first to be removed from the market, while producers focusing on premium products should receive additional incentives.
Price expectations and outlook
The question of what price level can be considered fair remains a matter of debate. Some believe that about €5.5 per kilo is optimal for top-tier oil, while others suggest a range between €3 and €9 depending on the season and quality. One thing is clear: there is no one-size-fits-all solution for all product types, and the approach should be flexible.
Overall, the introduction of the new mechanism is seen as a step toward a more stable market. It will help avoid sharp disruptions and allow the industry to develop more predictably. In the coming years, Spanish producers and consumers will be able to assess how effective this system is in practice.
