The sharp escalation in the Middle East is already raising concerns among food security experts. For Spain and other European countries, the consequences could be significant: rising prices for food and fuel may affect every household, while supply disruptions could disrupt daily routines. According to the World Food Programme (WFP), if the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran does not end by summer, the number of people on the brink of hunger could increase by tens of millions.
In recent months, global markets have responded to regional instability with surges in oil and grain prices. This impacts shipping costs and retail prices in stores. Spanish importers are already reporting higher logistics expenses, and producers warn of possible shortages of certain raw materials. An analysis by russpain.com shows that even short-term trade disruptions can trigger a chain reaction across Europe.
Rising threat of hunger
According to WFP estimates, if hostilities continue until June, an additional 45 million people could join the already record-high 319 million facing severe food shortages. This would be the largest increase in recent years. The cause is not only direct infrastructure damage but also rising fuel prices, which push up transportation costs and reduce access to food for vulnerable groups.
In Spain, experts note that rising global prices for grain and oil have already begun to impact the domestic market. For low-income families, this means a narrower selection of products and declining nutrition quality. In rural areas, farmers are grappling with higher fuel and fertilizer costs, which could lead to lower yields and increased prices for local produce.
Economic impact
Economists caution that if the situation does not stabilize, inflation in Spain could accelerate and social tensions may grow. Higher prices for food and energy could slow down the country’s post-pandemic economic recovery and affect major sectors, including transport and agriculture. According to WFP, countries most vulnerable will be those heavily reliant on imported food and fuel.
Spanish authorities are already discussing possible support measures for the most affected population groups. Proposals include temporary tax cuts on essential goods and expanding social assistance programs. However, experts stress that without stabilization in the Middle East, these measures may prove insufficient.
Global consequences
The international community is closely monitoring developments, fearing a repeat of past crises. The surge in food and fuel prices in 2022 already sparked mass protests in several countries and increased the number of people falling below the poverty line. Now, the situation could repeat itself, but on an even larger scale.
In recent years, WFP has repeatedly warned of the risks linked to armed conflicts and disruptions in global supply chains. Each new escalation in the Middle East leads to rising prices and reduced food availability for millions of families. For Spain and other European countries, this means they must prepare for new challenges and look for ways to protect the most vulnerable groups.
Recalling recent events, it is worth noting that in 2022, a sharp increase in grain and fuel prices already led to supply disruptions and a growing need for humanitarian aid. At that time, many countries were forced to impose export restrictions and reassess their food reserves. Similar measures are currently being discussed, underscoring the seriousness of the threat to global food security.
