The outcome of the upcoming elections in Aragón could reshape the region’s political landscape and shift the balance of power in the autonomous community. For residents, this could mean changes in governance, resource allocation, and key decision-making affecting daily life. In the context of a fragmented parliament and heightened competition among parties, the results of the vote take on special significance.
The current head of government, Jorge Azcón, enters the election with experience in managing complex coalitions. In recent years, no political force has secured an absolute majority in the Aragonese Corts, which holds 67 seats, requiring at least 34 deputies to control the parliament. In the previous legislature, Azcón was able to form a government with the support of Vox and Partido Aragonés, which allowed him to remain in power.
Coalition scenarios
The possibility of the Partido Popular governing alone looks unlikely. Even if the party improves on its previous election result of 28 seats, reaching the majority needed without allies is practically impossible. Experts expect that Azcón will not only have to surpass the Socialists but also secure support from other right-wing and centrist groups.
Vox once again becomes a key player. Having retained its seven seats, the party can provide the needed majority in partnership with the Partido Popular. If both parties manage to surpass the threshold of 34 deputies together, Azcón will have a chance to remain as president. However, even a slight drop in support for either side could shift the balance of power and force the search for additional agreements.
The role of smaller parties
The Partido Aragonés, despite its modest representation, could prove decisive in shaping the majority. One or two seats won by this party may tip the scales in favor of the current government. If the Partido Popular and Vox do not secure enough seats, it is the support of the Partido Aragonés that could determine the formation of a stable coalition.
The situation is further complicated by regionalists and left-wing alternative forces. Formations like Chunta Aragonesista, Podemos, IU, and the new coalition Existe are not only able to draw votes away from the major parties, but also influence the final distribution of seats. Their success in the election could lead to more complex negotiations and even the emergence of unexpected alliances.
The influence of new players
The emergence of new political movements such as Se Acabó la Fiesta adds uncertainty. These forces can fragment the electorate, increasing the value of each individual mandate. In a situation where no party can count on a clear majority, even the slightest shift in parliamentary composition can lead to a change in power or to prolonged coalition negotiations.
There is also a scenario in which Azcona could retain his position even without reaching 30 deputies, if support from Vox and other allies proves enough to block alternative options. However, any weakening of the Popular Party or its partners may pave the way for the formation of a new government led by the Socialists.
Context and trends
In recent years, it has become increasingly common in Spain for no single party to be able to govern a region outright. In 2023, similar challenges arose in Madrid and Valencia, where forming coalitions became the only path to stability. In Catalonia and Galicia, there have also been repeated situations where small parties played a decisive role in the balance of power.
The emergence of new political movements and the growing number of voters not tied to traditional parties are making election outcomes increasingly unpredictable. As a result, coalition negotiations are becoming ever more complex, and every mandate gains special significance. Similar processes can be observed in other regions of the country, reflecting a broader trend toward political fragmentation and increasingly complicated government formation.
