Aliança Catalana has climbed rapidly to third place in Catalonia's political rankings, information from the Centre d’Estudis d’Opinió (CEO) barometer published on 14 October 2026. The poll puts the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) first and Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC) second; Junts and En Comú Podem are declining. Led by Sílvia Orriols, Aliança Catalana could gain further influence: a separate Ipsos survey for La Vanguardia projected approximately 30 seats for the party in the Parlament. An absolute majority requires 68 of the chamber’s seats, and estimates for a potential bloc featuring Aliança Catalana and Junts, alongside Vox and the Partido Popular (PP), range from 65 to 71. The figures make the party a possible kingmaker even if it does not become the largest formation.
The polling points to a fragmented electorate, with support extending beyond a single political tradition. Of the CEO survey’s 2,000 respondents, 200 said they would vote for Aliança Catalana in a Catalan regional election. Among those potential voters, 40.5% reportedly opposed independence, while 41% described their identity as “as Catalan as Spanish.” Some 43% had supported Junts, ERC or the PSC in 2024. Asked how they would vote in a Spanish general election, respondents in this group named Vox and Junts at 18% each, ERC at 13%, the PP at 7% and the PSC at 6.5%.
That cross-party appeal does not necessarily mean voters see the party as capable of governing. In CEO-related reporting, the PSC, ERC and Junts were the parties most consistently named as able to address Catalonia’s problems. In one assessment, the response “no party” also exceeded any individual formation. Aliança Catalana appeared as relevant to selected issues, rather than among the parties most regularly associated with addressing the country’s problems. The distinction highlights a gap between stated voting intention and respondents’ views of which parties can govern effectively.
The party’s momentum has prompted immediate reactions. Junts announced the reactivation of a parliamentary commission to sanction Orriols over her previous comments on the Islamic veil. The dispute has also played out in the chamber: on 21 October, Parlament president Josep Rull reprimanded Orriols during a parliamentary intervention concerning comments about Muslim culture and the veil. President of the Generalitat Salvador Illa called her “demagogic, ignorant, rude and provocative.” Orriols rejected Rull’s reprimand, arguing that it conflicted with freedom of expression and constitutional values. She said: “The only one that does not restrict freedom of expression is Aliança Catalana.” The episode places the conflict within parliamentary procedure as well as the wider contest between political parties.
Aliança Catalana’s rapid expansion has exposed internal strains as it works to fill candidate lists and build its organisation. The inclusion of Xavier Capelles López, described as a former member of Fuerza Nueva who stood for the European Parliament with Comunión Tradicionalista Carlista, has prompted departures and objections from some members. Capelles also previously held a role connected with Societat Civil Catalana and now presents himself as an independentist. He acknowledged that his political “conversion” had generated reservations, underscoring the challenge of maintaining a coherent party identity while recruiting from sharply different political backgrounds.
The party’s regional rise is unfolding alongside the Spanish general election scheduled for 29 November 2026, which Aliança Catalana will not contest. Orriols has said the party does not participate in Spanish, Italian or German elections. In the CEO’s general-election projection, the PSC led with 29.6%, while ERC was ahead of Junts and Vox. Aliança Catalana’s projected regional strength so does not translate directly into seats in the national contest. Instead, other parties may seek to attract its potential supporters.
Aliança Catalana’s support is widely framed as a protest against established options, while efforts to isolate it through political “cordons sanitaires” may reinforce its outsider position. Its trajectory recalls the rapid rise of Ciudadanos and Podemos, as well as Vox and Sumar, though the circumstances and subsequent fortunes of those formations differ. The coming months will test whether Aliança Catalana can turn its polling support into durable institutional influence while managing internal divisions and broadening perceptions of its capacity to address Catalonia’s problems.
