Southern Spain is on alert as weather models indicate that Andalusia could approach 49°C in the coming days, a level of heat rarely seen even in the region. Air and sea temperatures are surging across the Mediterranean basin, with the sea reaching 30°C near Mallorca. The escalation extends beyond Spain: Italy and Greece are registering extreme values, as are Turkey and France, with several areas already exceeding 40°C.
Recent measurements show Andalusia surpassing 44°C, while Mallorca has recorded nearly 40°C. Many locations in Greece and Italy are also enduring temperatures above 40°C. The same is true in Turkey. Forecasts suggest the next heatwave, expected in early August, could push temperatures even higher, especially in southern Spain. Spain’s national meteorological agency, AEMET, issues severe-weather alerts through its Meteoalerta system, with forecasts covering up to 72 hours and updates as conditions develop. Its observation service separately publishes recent station measurements, including daily maximum temperatures.
A strong high-pressure system over central Europe is driving the heat, channeling hot air from North Africa into southern Europe. Meteorologist Corinna Borau of wetter.com says European models predict highs of 42 to 43°C for southern Spain, while American models project up to 49°C near Seville on August 2. Such extremes would be unprecedented for Andalusia and pose impressive challenges for residents and the environment.
The regional heat fits a broader pattern documented by the Copernicus Climate Change Service: Western Europe had its hottest June on record in 2025, with major heat episodes from June 17 to 22 and June 30 to July 2. Temperatures exceeded 40°C in parts of Spain and Portugal and reached 46°C in some areas. Copernicus Strategic Lead for Climate Samantha Burgess described the heatwave’s impact as “exceptional,” intensified by record-high western Mediterranean sea-surface temperatures.
France is also bracing for a new period of exceptional heat. By July 29, temperatures in Nouvelle-Aquitaine could reach 47°C, while Occitanie could see up to 45°C. Centre-Val de Loire may reach 44°C, as could Pays de la Loire. Brittany and Normandy could each reach 42°C. The figures reflect the heatwave’s reach across western Europe.
Meanwhile, the Mediterranean Sea is warming rapidly, with surface temperatures between 25°C and 29°C in many areas. Off Mallorca, water temperatures have hit 30°C, levels more typical of tropical regions. Copernicus reported that the western Mediterranean’s highest daily sea-surface temperature on record, 27°C, was reached on June 30, 2025, with some areas around 5°C above average. This unusually warm water could fuel severe storms and, under certain conditions, contribute to the formation of so-called Medicanes, or Mediterranean cyclones. By comparison, the North Sea is much cooler, at 19 to 21°C.
As the heat persists, drought conditions are worsening. Wildfire risk is rising sharply in Spain and France, as well as in Greece and parts of Italy, where dry vegetation and strong winds create ideal conditions for fires to spread rapidly. The situation is reminiscent of recent emergencies, including the mass evacuations in Madrid during a major wildfire, covered in detail in a previous report on the Madrid fire crisis.
Central European countries are also affected. Germany and Austria are seeing temperatures rise as hot air moves north; Switzerland is affected too. The heat is increasing wildfire risks, particularly in southern and western Germany, where drought is already present.
Heatwaves of this magnitude have become more frequent in recent years, affecting public health and agriculture, as well as tourism and infrastructure. Spanish authorities have issued repeated warnings about the dangers of extreme heat, urging residents and visitors to take precautions. Record air temperatures and unusually warm seas are also driving heightened wildfire risk, making preparedness across the region impressive.
