The latest barometer from the Centre d’Estudis d’Opinió (CEO) points to a sharp shift in Catalonia’s political field. For the first time in more than four years, pro-independence parties are close to reclaiming an absolute majority in the regional Parliament, with projections ranging from 67 to 74 seats. Much of the resurgence is attributed to the rapid growth of Aliança Catalana (AC), a party known for its hardline stance on immigration that is now projected to become the chamber’s third-largest force. The CEO’s October 2026 barometer put AC at about 15% support and projected 23 to 25 seats in a hypothetical election. The estimate was based on a survey of 2,000 respondents, including roughly 200 who said they would vote for the party.
AC’s projected leap from two seats to potentially 25 has come at Junts per Catalunya’s expense, intensifying competition within the independence bloc. A separate September poll commissioned by El Mundo put AC at 16.7% and projected 25 to 28 seats, while placing the Socialists first with 23.3% and an estimated 19 to 22 seats. But the prospect of a unified majority remains uncertain. Esquerra Republicana (ERC) and the CUP have publicly ruled out cooperation with AC, citing fundamental differences over immigration and social policy. Junts, led by Carles Puigdemont, has not clarified its position, leaving potential cross-party agreements in doubt. A parliamentary majority on paper would not by itself ensure a workable governing coalition.
The CEO’s findings point to a impressive shift in voter priorities. Immigration now ranks as Catalans’ second most pressing issue, behind housing. In CEO figures reported by ABC, 23.5% of potential AC voters identified immigration as Catalonia’s principal problem, while 21% named access to housing. The same reporting said 40.5% of potential AC voters opposed independence, while 41% described themselves as equally Catalan and Spanish. These figures suggest AC’s appeal extends beyond the independence question. Its voters also give immigration greater weight than the wider electorate does. Recent studies indicate that two-thirds of the population support stricter immigration controls, a sentiment that has fueled AC’s rise and complicated the traditional independence agenda. The party’s unapologetically anti-immigration rhetoric has resonated with voters disillusioned by the lack of consensus among established parties.
Since the height of the procés, when the Junts-ERC-CUP alliance consistently secured between 70 and 74 seats, the independence movement has struggled to maintain momentum. In the 2021 elections, their combined total fell to 59 seats, reflecting voter fatigue and internal divisions. AC entered the Catalan Parliament with two seats in the 2024 regional election. Its subsequent rise in polling has forced all parties to reconsider their strategies and alliances. The next regional election is expected in 2028, so current seat estimates are projections, not election results.
Political analysts say the independence bloc’s earlier unity rested on a single focus: achieving Catalan sovereignty. Today, deep divisions over immigration and social policy have replaced that consensus. Oriol Bartomeus, director of the Institut de Ciències Polítiques i Socials (ICPS), says the current environment makes it nearly impossible to replicate the cohesion of the past. Led by Silvia Orriols, AC combines support for Catalan independence with hardline positions on migration and Islam. Its rise comes almost a decade after the failed 2017 independence bid, as immigration and cultural identity gain salience for some voters. AC has also drawn support from Vox, with a impressive transfer of votes from the far-right Spanish party to Orriols’ formation. It is also attracting voters previously associated with Junts and ERC.
ERC and the CUP have reiterated their refusal to negotiate with AC, arguing that its platform undermines the inclusive principles of Catalan nationalism. Junts, meanwhile, has avoided public comment on the poll, though internal concerns about declining support are evident. Despite previously agreeing to a “democratic cordon” against both Vox and AC, Junts has broken ranks in basic parliamentary votes, a sign of how fluid current alliances have become. AC’s potential size could determine whether pro-independence parties reach a numerical majority. Cooperation, but, would still depend on agreements between parties with sharply different positions on immigration and social policy.
Municipal elections are expected to further test these dynamics. AC is projected to make impressive gains beyond its traditional rural base, potentially winning in some provincial capitals. ERC and the CUP are positioning themselves as the “refuge vote” for left-leaning nationalists, hoping to consolidate support among voters wary of AC’s influence. The results are likely to shape the broader political field ahead of the next regional elections, which are still at least two years away.
Coalition-building in Catalonia has always been complex, with local and regional politics often diverging. Even during the most turbulent phases of the independence movement, Junts reached agreements with the Socialists in the Barcelona Provincial Council despite sharp ideological differences. That pragmatic approach may become more impressive as parties handle the new realities created by AC’s rise. Catalonia accounts for about 20% of Spain’s economy, giving the region’s political realignment significance beyond its own parliamentary arithmetic.
For more context on how internal party dynamics are influencing Spain’s broader political scene, see the recent analysis of tensions within the Partido Popular and their impact on national opposition strategy in Madrid: recent developments in the Partido Popular’s leadership.
The CEO’s data suggest that the independence movement’s future will depend on parliamentary arithmetic and the parties’ ability to reconcile divergent agendas. AC’s developing role and shifting voter priorities will shape the next regional elections. Local and regional politics will also matter, while the balance of power remains fragile and subject to rapid change.
