A new CEO poll puts Catalan independence parties close to regaining an absolute majority. The rapid ascent of Aliança Catalana is shifting alliances and raising tensions among traditional parties.
The latest barometer from the Centre d’Estudis d’Opinió (CEO) signals a dramatic shift in Catalonia’s political landscape. For the first time in over four years, pro-independence parties are on the verge of reclaiming an absolute majority in the regional Parliament, with projections ranging from 67 to 74 seats. This resurgence is largely attributed to the rapid growth of Aliança Catalana (AC), a party known for its hardline stance on immigration, which is now poised to become the third-largest force in the chamber.
AC’s projected leap—from two seats to potentially 25—has come at the expense of Junts per Catalunya, intensifying competition within the independence bloc. However, the prospect of a unified majority remains uncertain. Esquerra Republicana (ERC) and the CUP have publicly ruled out any cooperation with AC, citing fundamental differences over immigration and social policy. Junts, led by Carles Puigdemont, has not clarified its position, adding further ambiguity to the potential for cross-party agreements.
The CEO’s findings highlight a significant shift in voter priorities. Immigration now ranks as the second most pressing issue for Catalans, just behind housing. Recent studies indicate that two-thirds of the population support stricter immigration controls, a sentiment that has fueled AC’s rise and complicated the traditional independence agenda. The party’s unapologetically anti-immigration rhetoric has resonated with voters disillusioned by the lack of consensus among established parties.
Since the height of the procés, when the Junts-ERC-CUP alliance consistently secured between 70 and 74 seats, the independence movement has struggled to maintain momentum. The 2021 elections saw their combined total drop to 59 seats, reflecting voter fatigue and internal divisions. AC’s entry into Parliament did not initially alter the balance of power, but its recent surge has forced all parties to reconsider their strategies and alliances.
Political analysts note that the independence bloc’s previous unity was built on a singular focus: achieving Catalan sovereignty. Today, deep divisions over immigration and social policy have replaced that consensus. The director of the Institut de Ciències Polítiques i Socials (ICPS), Oriol Bartomeus, points out that the current environment makes it nearly impossible to replicate the cohesion of the past. The rise of AC has also drawn support away from Vox, with a notable transfer of votes from the far-right Spanish party to Orriols’ formation.
ERC and the CUP have reiterated their refusal to negotiate with AC, arguing that its platform undermines the inclusive principles of Catalan nationalism. Junts, meanwhile, has avoided public comment on the poll, though internal concerns about declining support are evident. Despite having previously agreed to a “democratic cordon” against both Vox and AC, Junts has broken ranks in key parliamentary votes, underscoring the fluidity of current alliances.
Municipal elections are expected to further test these dynamics. AC is projected to make significant gains beyond its traditional rural base, potentially winning in some provincial capitals. ERC and the CUP are positioning themselves as the “refuge vote” for left-leaning nationalists, hoping to consolidate support among voters wary of AC’s influence. The outcome of these contests will likely shape the broader political landscape ahead of the next regional elections, which are still at least two years away.
Coalition-building in Catalonia has always been complex, with local and regional politics often diverging. Even during the most turbulent phases of the independence movement, Junts reached agreements with the Socialists in the Barcelona Provincial Council, despite sharp ideological differences. This pragmatic approach may become increasingly important as parties navigate the new realities created by AC’s rise.
For additional context on how internal party dynamics are influencing Spain’s broader political scene, see the recent analysis of tensions within the Partido Popular and their impact on national opposition strategy in Madrid: recent developments in the Partido Popular’s leadership.
Looking ahead, the CEO’s data suggest that the independence movement’s future will depend not only on arithmetic majorities but also on the ability of parties to reconcile divergent agendas. The evolving role of AC, the shifting priorities of Catalan voters, and the interplay between local and regional politics will all be critical factors in determining the next chapter of Catalonia’s political story. As the region approaches new electoral cycles, the balance of power remains fragile and subject to rapid change.
