Official estimates for Ceuta continue to diverge sharply. The latest figures range from 2,000 to 13,000 people, with separate discrepancies over arrivals, returns and unaccompanied minors.
More than a month after the arrivals on 30 July, the number of migrants still in Ceuta depends on which administration is providing the estimate. The latest figures range from 2,000 to 13,000 people, affecting the reported scale of the reception operation and the calculation of returns and minors in the city.
The latest figure from the Ceuta government puts the number still present at 13,000 on 16 September. Government spokesman Alejandro Ramírez said more than 5,300 people had left voluntarily and another 300 had been expelled. His account placed the number remaining after the arrivals at around 20,000.
The effects of the Ceuta crisis reached beyond Spain: Reuters reported on 15 September that Italy extended temporary checks on its border with Spain for another 15 days.
That estimate is higher than the latest figure attributed to the central government.
Europa Press reported on 18 September that government sources estimated that around 10,000 irregular migrants were still in Ceuta. The same report put about 6,000 people in accommodation resources created by the authorities and between 3,000 and 4,000 in streets, hills and beaches. The sources were not identified.
The central government's public figures have also changed repeatedly. On 4 August, Fernando Grande-Marlaska said that 2,000 people remained after 70,000 of the 72,000 arrivals had returned. Miguel Ángel Pérez, the Government Delegate in Ceuta, repeated the 2,000 figure the following day. By 13 August, Grande-Marlaska was referring to 5,000 people, an estimate he repeated on 28 August.
The Interior Ministry’s figures and local estimates do not necessarily measure the same group. Central authorities count people already captured by registration and return procedures, while Ceuta’s authorities also include people believed to be outside the formal system in streets, hills and beaches.
On 16 September, the Minister for Territorial Policy, Ángel Víctor Torres, raised the figure to 6,300. The same government update said temporary accommodation resources had been expanded to 4,160 places at different locations, while nearly 1,000 people were still being registered to complete return procedures. Two days later, the estimate cited by Europa Press reached 10,000.
Pedro Sánchez did not provide a precise total on 14 September, but said the government intended to activate almost 10,000 reception places. That compared with 500 before 30 July and more than 6,000 by that week.
Ceuta's own figures changed quickly. Juan Jesús Vivas put the number at 5,000 on 3 August, while warning that there were no exact data. Five days later, he gave a range of between 8,000 and 11,000. On 16 September, the regional government published the 13,000 estimate.
The disagreement starts with the initial arrival total. On 31 July, the Interior Ministry told Maldita.es that approximately 50,000 people had entered Ceuta from Morocco since 30 July. Grande-Marlaska revised the estimate to between 50,000 and 60,000 on 1 August, then to 72,000 on 4 August. Torres cited 80,000 on 10 August, although unidentified ministry sources later told EFE that the figure was 72,000.
Sánchez subsequently used the figure of 70,000 in Congress on 3 September and repeated it on 9 September. Vivas had cited 80,000 on 3 August, while Ceuta's communication department directed requests for greater precision to the Spanish government.
Return figures have followed the same uneven pattern. On 16 September, Torres said that 5,603 migrants had voluntarily returned to Morocco since 10 August and that 307 had been expelled by 15 September. He added that 1,917 adult cases were ready for possible deportation if the people concerned had no right to remain in Spain. Vivas had said on 3 August that 73,000 people had left Ceuta since 30 July.
Before Torres's latest update, the central government had reported 3,519 returns and 214 expulsions on 1 September. Sánchez cited 3,658 returns on 3 September, while Torres reported 4,516 returns and 278 expulsions on 8 September. The figures then rose to 4,500 returns in Sánchez's account on 9 September, 5,300 on 13 September and 5,482 returns plus 307 expulsions on 15 September. AFP also reported the government's account of more than 5,300 people returning to Morocco, reflecting how quickly the published totals were changing.
Minors are another source of discrepancy. Spain reported 2,140 registered minors on 16 September. Ceuta reported 2,100 minors in accommodation and between 700 and 1,000 without accommodation on the same day. The central government had previously cited 1,400 registered minors on 10 August, 1,500 on 28 August, 1,612 on 1 September and 2,004 on 8 September.
Ceuta's president said on 3 August that 750 migrant minors were already in the city before 30 July, but that he did not know how many had arrived afterward. The regional spokesman later provided the separate estimate for minors in accommodation.
For readers following the pressure on Ceuta's reception system, the earlier report on the transfer of unaccompanied minors provides relevant context. The figures collected through 18 September are not interchangeable: some refer to people still present, while others cover arrivals, returns, expulsions, registered minors or available places.
The figures show a persistent lack of consistency between public counts rather than one final total. Madrid's estimates for the number of people still in Ceuta rose from 2,000 to 10,000, while the regional government reached 13,000. Arrival totals moved from approximately 50,000 to 80,000, and return figures changed with each update. Until the authorities define what each count includes and publish a common baseline, the public is receiving separate measurements of the same crisis rather than one reliable total.
