Most private surveys put the PP ahead and project about 204 seats for a PP and Vox bloc, above the 176-seat majority threshold. The CIS diverges sharply, placing the PSOE first with a lead of nearly 12 points.
An absolute majority in the Congress of Deputies requires 176 seats. The average of 16 polling institutes compiled by Demócrata projects about 204 seats for the PP and Vox together, putting the two parties well above that threshold.
The average gives the PP 31.7% of the vote, ahead of the PSOE on 26.8%. Vox is placed at 18.7%; Sumar has 6.3%, while Podemos is at 3.1%. These are estimates, not election results.
The Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (CIS) offers a sharply different picture. Its October barometer, published on 14 October ahead of the 29 November election, puts the PSOE at 34% and the PP at 22.2%, a gap of 11.8 points. Vox is at 17.1%, Sumar/Frente Amplio at 6.1%, while Podemos is at 3.1%. Compared with September, the PSOE gained 3 points. The PP lost 3.3, while Vox rose 0.5. The poll was based on 5,025 interviews conducted from 1 to 6 October in 50 provinces, with a stated margin of error of about 1.4 percentage points. The PP’s estimate is its weakest in a year, according to the barometer reported by ABC. The CIS is directed by José Félix Tezanos.
The fieldwork took place amid renewed attention to Spain’s housing crisis. That included the eviction of Maricarmen Abascal and a tent protest calling for affordable housing. Parliament also rejected several government decrees. The October barometer was the first CIS poll after the election was announced. Its figures are estimates of voting intention, not election results, and it did not include an official seat allocation.
Vox’s rise is the point of broadest agreement across the polling. Sigma Dos, in a survey for El Mundo based on more than 3,000 interviews conducted from 1 to 14 October, puts the party on 19.5% and 65 seats, twice its current representation. GAD3’s 12 October barometer for ABC also gives it 65 seats, with a slightly lower vote estimate. The CIS puts Vox on 17.1%, still third in the Congress and 5.1 points behind the PP. That estimate is about five points above the party’s result in the previous general election.
Private estimates for the PP mostly fall between 30% and 34%, markedly above the CIS figure of 22.2%. DYM gives it 34% and between 139 and 143 seats in a study for Heraldo; a separate survey for Henneo puts it at 34.7% and 148 seats. Sigma Dos estimates 31.5% and 136 seats for Alberto Núñez Feijóo. Private polls generally place the PSOE below 29%, while the PP is around 30% to 34% and ahead of the Socialists.
The PSOE’s private polling is weaker than the CIS figure. Nearly all private surveys put it below 29%, with Sigma Dos at 25.3%. That poll projects a loss of between 31 and 36 seats for Pedro Sánchez, compared with the 121 the party won in 2023. The PSOE federal committee has backed Sánchez as its candidate for the November election, as reported in an earlier party update.
The failed agreement between Frente Amplio and Podemos to run together, except in the Canary Islands and the Valencian Community, also shows up in the projections. Sigma Dos estimates that Frente Amplio and Podemos, with the Valencian alliance factored in, would win just 13 seats, against the 31 they secured together in 2023 under the Sumar name. NC Report for La Razón estimates losses of as many as 22 seats, with between 14 and 15 going to the PP and Vox.
Most private polling institutes point to a PP and Vox coalition as the only combination with enough support to govern, while the CIS places the PSOE first. The CIS’s estimate of voting intention does not itself provide a seat projection. Polls may be published until 23 November, the final permitted date before the 29 November election.
