The CIS’s October barometer estimates the PSOE’s vote share at 34%, against 22.2% for the PP. Vox is also up as housing disputes shape the campaign before the November 29 election.
The CIS conducted 5,025 interviews from October 1 to 6, after the eviction of Maricarmen Abascal and amid a dispute over two housing decree-laws. The barometer was published on October 14.
Its modelled estimate puts the governing PSOE at 34% of the vote. The PP stands at 22.2%. Spain’s general election is scheduled for November 29. These figures estimate vote share; they are neither counted votes nor a projection of seats in Congress.
The gap has widened since September. The PSOE is up three points, while the PP has fallen back 3.3. In the previous month’s barometer, the PSOE stood at 31% and the PP at 25.5, a 5.5-point gap.
Housing was the central pressure point during the survey. This was the first CIS barometer after the housing protests and the rejection of the measures. The crisis has tested the government, which, according to the source, has not resolved the problem during the legislature. The poll captures party standings during the dispute; it does not establish that the housing row caused the shifts.
The PP has failed to turn its criticism of the government’s housing response into a higher estimate. Alberto Núñez Feijóo challenged the effort to address, in one week through two decree-laws, a problem he said had gone unresolved for eight years. He also criticised how the measures were prepared. The CIS puts the PP at 22.2%, down from 25.5% in September.
Vox is the biggest gainer on the right, up half a point to 17.1%. Santiago Abascal’s party has blamed rising rents and barriers to access on limits to construction and the government’s migration policies. Abascal’s attacks on Sánchez have also featured in earlier campaign coverage.
Asked directly about voting intention, 25.3% of respondents named the PSOE. The PP received 14.7%. Vox received 11.6%. Those answers differ from the CIS’s modelled estimate.
To the PSOE’s left, Sumar stands at 6.1%, up 0.4 points. It has pressed the socialists to adopt housing measures, particularly an automatic extension of rental contracts, while seeking a united candidacy called Frente Amplio. Izquierda Unida is involved, alongside Más Madrid; the commons are also part of the effort.
The CIS puts Podemos at 3.1%, down 0.6 points. ERC is at 3%, up half a point. Together, the PSOE and Frente Amplio are estimated at 40.1%, compared with 39.3% for the PP and Vox combined.
ERC’s rise narrows the gap between the two parties. It came after Irene Montero agreed to campaign alongside Gabriel Rufián. The ERC politician supports a broad left-wing candidacy for the general election and has not ruled out an understanding with Frente Amplio.
