The EU court’s decision on the amnesty law has not reignited the Catalan conflict. In Barcelona, the issue is seen as settled, but in Madrid, Puigdemont’s possible return is raising political stakes.
The recent ruling by the Court of Justice of the European Union (TJUE) on Spain’s amnesty law has not triggered a political earthquake in Catalonia. For most in Barcelona, the so-called ‘procés’ is already a closed chapter, and the court’s decision is viewed as a minor tremor rather than a turning point. The real impact is being felt in Madrid, where the possibility of Carles Puigdemont’s return is causing unease among national political forces.
Salvador Illa, president of Catalonia, has called for the swift and comprehensive application of the amnesty law, emphasizing that the Supreme Court’s resistance should not hinder the process. Illa’s stance reflects a broader sentiment in Catalan society: the amnesty is seen as a necessary step to move on, not as a reopening of old wounds. According to the latest data from the Centre d’Estudis d’Opinió, Puigdemont’s influence among Junts voters has declined sharply since 2025, with less than a third now preferring him as president. This shift underlines the perception that Puigdemont’s era belongs to the past for most Catalans.
In contrast, Madrid’s political landscape remains unsettled. The government is wary that resolving Puigdemont’s legal status could alter Junts’ position in Congress, despite the party’s weakened state and uncertain electoral prospects. Junts, meanwhile, is banking on Puigdemont’s return as a way to revive its fortunes, even as public interest in the ‘procés’ continues to fade. The Popular Party (PP) finds itself in a delicate position, having recently sought closer ties with Junts. The TJUE’s decision has complicated this strategy, turning the issue into a political hot potato for PP leader Feijóo. Vox, on the other hand, sees an opportunity to capitalize on the situation as the matter returns to the Supreme Court, which has a history of setting its own timetable for high-profile cases.
The Supreme Court’s next steps are being closely watched, especially given its decisive role in the 2019 sentencing of ‘procés’ leaders, which disrupted the national election campaign at the time. The current scenario could again influence the political calendar, depending on how the court proceeds. For further context on how legal decisions have shaped recent Spanish politics, see the analysis of the Supreme Court’s actions in the Aldama corruption case.
Spain’s amnesty law, designed to address the fallout from the 2017 Catalan independence push, has been a source of national debate since its proposal. The law aims to grant legal relief to those involved in the independence movement, but its implementation has faced obstacles, particularly from the judiciary. The TJUE’s ruling clarifies the European legal framework but leaves the final word to Spain’s Supreme Court. As the political focus shifts from Barcelona to Madrid, the outcome will likely depend on how the courts and parties navigate the complex legal and electoral landscape in the months ahead.
