Aliança Catalana and Vox could together win up to 38 seats, almost 30% of the 135-member Catalan Parliament, information from the first 2026 barometer from the Centre d’Estudis d’Opinió de la Generalitat (CEO). Conducted between late May and late June, the survey projects a dramatic rise from their current combined total of 13 seats, signaling a impressive shift in the region’s political field.
The PSC is projected to remain the party with the most votes, but its lead is slipping. The Socialists are expected to win between 36 and 38 seats, at least four fewer than their current representation. The survey coincided with the indictment of former president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero and the emergence of the Leire case, both of which may have influenced voter sentiment.
Aliança Catalana, which entered Parliament only recently with two deputies, is now projected to become its third-largest force, with 23 to 25 seats. Vox is forecast to hold steady at 12 to 13 seats, matching the projected range for the Partido Popular (PP). Esquerra Republicana (ERC) would take second place with 24 to 26 seats, while Junts per Catalunya faces a steep drop, potentially losing up to 19 deputies and falling to 16 to 18 seats.
The CEO-based voter profile suggests Aliança Catalana’s potential support does not fall neatly along the independence divide. ABC’s analysis of the survey found that 40.5% of potential Aliança voters oppose independence, while 41% identify as equally Catalan and Spanish. In a Spanish general election, respondents inclined to vote for Aliança in Catalan elections named Vox (18%), ERC (13%), the PP (7%) and the PSC (6.5%) as possible choices. The figures point to a potential electorate drawing support from several political camps, including the pro-independence right.
Issues beyond constitutional identity also feature in the profile: 23.5% of potential Aliança voters identified immigration as Catalonia’s principal problem, while 21% named access to housing. CEO data reported by Cadena SER also indicate that Aliança could attract nearly one in four of Vox’s voters in a Catalan election. That points to potential competition between the two parties, as well as gains at the expense of other formations.
The current governing alliance, made up of the PSC and ERC alongside Comuns, would struggle to maintain a majority. In the least favorable scenario, the three parties would collectively win only 64 seats, short of the 68 needed for a majority. Comuns, which currently has six deputies, is expected to drop to four or five, while the CUP would remain stable at four to five seats.
The CEO poll was released after a impressive delay and amid controversy over the tendering process for survey companies. Originally scheduled for the first quarter, publication was pushed back by administrative issues. The new contract was not finalized until March 2026, leading to changes in the survey’s methodology and timing. The previous director, Jordi Muñoz, had arranged for three polls in the prior year, but they were left uncovered, prompting the current team under Rodríguez Teruel to introduce new conditions.
The electoral shift is unfolding amid wider dissatisfaction with established parties. CEO barometers have found that “none” consistently led when respondents were asked which party could address Catalonia’s basic challenges, at around 30% to 32%. The share expressing this view rose from roughly 27% to 28% during 2025 to nearly 33% in the latest 2026 study. A separate CEO survey question asked whether respondents might consider switching their vote to far-right parties out of disappointment with parties they had recently supported. About 22% of Catalans said they could consider doing so, rising to 73% among respondents sympathetic to Aliança Catalana and 67% among Vox sympathizers.
Compared with the CEO’s last survey in November, the latest results show a impressive realignment. At the time, the PSC was projected to win 38 to 40 seats and ERC 22 to 23, while Junts and Aliança Catalana were tied for third with 19 to 20 seats each. Vox and PP were both projected to win 12 to 14 seats, while Comuns and CUP were expected to maintain their existing numbers. The latest data point to a stronger showing for the far right and a weakened position for Junts.
Catalonia continues to attract national and international attention for its political shifts and ambitions in other fields. Its lead to host major international sports events each year was recently highlighted in a feature on Barcelona’s developing strategy. These political changes and broader regional ambitions reflect the complexity of Catalonia’s current moment.
The CEO survey was based on face-to-face interviews with 2,000 residents, providing a snapshot of public opinion during a turbulent period marked by scandals and shifting alliances. The results suggest the next Catalan elections could produce a Parliament more fragmented and polarized than at any time in recent memory, potentially reshaping the balance of power in the region. A separate CEO projection reported by La Razón put a possible grouping of Junts and the PP, alongside Vox and Aliança Catalana, at between 65 and 71 seats, against the 68 needed for an absolute majority. That is another sign of how difficult coalition arithmetic could become.
The Centre d’Estudis d’Opinió (CEO) is the Catalan government’s official polling institute and regularly tracks political trends and voter intentions. Its barometers are closely watched by parties and analysts, especially during periods of volatility. The rise of Aliança Catalana and Vox reflects broader trends in parts of Europe, where far-right parties have gained ground amid political scandals and shifting public priorities.
