The latest CEO poll shows Aliança Catalana and Vox could claim nearly 30% of the Catalan Parliament. PSC remains the leading party but loses seats. Junts faces a sharp decline, while the current majority is at risk.
Support for far-right parties in Catalonia has reached unprecedented levels, according to the first 2026 barometer from the Centre d’Estudis d’Opinió de la Generalitat (CEO). The survey, conducted between late May and late June, indicates that Aliança Catalana and Vox together could secure up to 38 seats—almost 30% of the 135-member Parliament. This marks a dramatic increase from their current combined total of 13 seats, signaling a significant shift in the region's political landscape.
The poll suggests the PSC would remain the most voted party, but its dominance is slipping. The Socialists are projected to win between 36 and 38 seats, at least four fewer than their current representation. The timing of the survey coincided with the indictment of former president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero and the eruption of the Leire case, both of which may have influenced voter sentiment.
Aliança Catalana, which only recently entered the Parliament with two deputies, is now positioned as the third-largest force, expected to claim 23 to 25 seats. Vox is forecasted to hold steady with 12 to 13 seats, matching the projected range for the Partido Popular (PP). Esquerra Republicana (ERC) would take second place with 24 to 26 seats, while Junts per Catalunya faces a steep drop, potentially losing up to 19 deputies and falling to just 16 to 18 seats.
The current governing alliance—PSC, ERC, and Comuns—would struggle to maintain a majority. In the least favorable scenario, these parties would collectively reach only 64 seats, short of the 68 needed for a majority. The Comuns, who currently have six deputies, are expected to drop to four or five, while the CUP would remain stable at four to five seats.
The CEO poll arrives after a significant delay and amid controversy over the tendering process for survey companies. Originally scheduled for release in the first quarter, administrative issues pushed the publication back. The new contract was not finalized until March 2026, resulting in changes to the methodology and timing of the survey. The previous director, Jordi Muñoz, had arranged for three polls in the prior year, but these were left uncovered, prompting the current team under Rodríguez Teruel to implement new conditions.
Compared to the CEO's last survey in November, the latest results show a notable realignment. Back then, the PSC was projected to win 38 to 40 seats, ERC 22 to 23, and Junts and Aliança Catalana were tied for third with 19 to 20 seats each. Vox and PP were both in the 12 to 14 seat range, while Comuns and CUP were expected to maintain their existing numbers. The current data, however, points to a much stronger showing for the far-right and a weakened position for Junts.
These developments in Catalonia come as the region continues to attract national and international attention, not only for its political shifts but also for its ambitions in other fields. For example, Catalonia's drive to host major international sports events each year was recently highlighted in a feature on Barcelona's evolving strategy. The intersection of political change and broader regional ambitions underscores the complexity of Catalonia's current moment.
The CEO survey was based on face-to-face interviews with 2,000 residents, providing a snapshot of public opinion during a turbulent period marked by scandals and shifting alliances. The results suggest that the next Catalan elections could produce a Parliament more fragmented and polarized than at any time in recent memory. As the political landscape evolves, parties and voters alike are preparing for a campaign season that may redefine the balance of power in Catalonia.
For context, the Centre d’Estudis d’Opinió (CEO) is the official polling institute of the Catalan government, regularly tracking political trends and voter intentions. Its barometers are closely watched by parties and analysts, especially in periods of volatility. The rise of Aliança Catalana and Vox reflects broader trends seen in parts of Europe, where far-right parties have gained ground amid political scandals and shifting public priorities. The coming months will reveal whether these polling trends translate into lasting changes in Catalonia's political order.
