SNE Research reports a sharp reversal in global hydrogen fuel cell vehicle sales, down almost 46% compared with last year. In the first half of the year, just 4,643 units were sold worldwide. That figure, despite a modest 13% year-on-year uptick, shows the scale of the recent collapse. The gap between current sales and long-range forecasts highlights how much the market’s prospects depend on sustained policy support and fleet demand.
The downturn has been especially pronounced in Europe and China. European sales fell to just 14 vehicles between January and June, a 64% drop from the previous year. China, once seen as a growth engine for hydrogen mobility, saw sales fall 54.5% year on year to 918 units in the first half of 2026. The decline followed the end of the country’s first major fuel-cell vehicle pilot program, which ran from 2021 through 2025, and roughly eight months without adequate public support. The pattern reflects a market still reliant on demonstration subsidies and commercial fleet procurement, rather than broad private-car demand.
South Korea, by contrast, has emerged as the lone bright spot. More than 70% of all hydrogen fuel cell vehicles sold globally in the first half of the year were registered there, almost exclusively the Hyundai Nexo. Hyundai’s launch of the Nexo’s second generation has propelled the brand to the forefront, while rivals such as Toyota and Honda have failed to gain traction. South Korea’s market accounted for 3,337 units, nearly triple the previous year’s tally. Public purchasing programs also support the wider hydrogen market: city governments buy fuel-cell buses under national hydrogen initiatives.
High operating costs remain a major obstacle to broader adoption, with the price of hydrogen basic to the economics of fuel-cell vehicles. China’s March 2026 hydrogen-energy application notice set a 2030 goal of 100,000 fuel-cell vehicles on the road and an end-user hydrogen price target of 25 yuan per kilogram for vehicle applications. The policy focuses on commercial fleets and hydrogen-use projects, rather than an immediate mass-market passenger-car rollout. SNE Research’s outlook also links future expansion to green-hydrogen production, projected to rise in China from 2 million tonnes in 2030 to 17.6 million tonnes in 2040.
In Europe, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles’ market share slipped to just 0.9%, down 0.6 percentage points. Infrastructure is another hurdle: the EU’s Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation sets binding requirements for hydrogen refuelling along the Trans-European Transport Network, including stations at intervals of up to 200 kilometres on the basic network by 2030. Its broader structure sets rules for price transparency and payment, while requiring standardized customer information. Separately, the regulation’s requirement for electric charging stations every 60 kilometres on basic TEN-T routes from 2025 applies to cars and light commercial vehicles, illustrating the corridor-based approach to alternative-fuel infrastructure.
BMW continues to develop hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles through its iX5 Hydrogen program. Real-world testing and prototype assembly are next as industrialization work progresses in parallel, information from BMW’s press material. The program’s cited specifications include refuelling in under five minutes and a projected range of about 750 kilometres; independent industry reporting identifies 2028 as the target for series production. BMW is working with Toyota on fuel-cell technology, while other automakers are pursuing heavy-duty applications. Toyota sold 1,702 hydrogen-powered vehicles globally in 2024, a reminder of the passenger-car market’s limited scale even for an established manufacturer.
Despite the present slump, SNE Research projects China’s annual fuel-cell vehicle sales could rise from 38,000 in 2030 to 933,000 in 2040, with demand concentrated in commercial vehicles. Its outlook forecasts automotive fuel-cell-system demand of 6.9 gigawatts in 2030 and a market growing from about KRW 790 billion that year to KRW 12.8 trillion by 2040. The consultancy expects large-scale commercial deployment after 2030, as the demonstration phase ends and system costs decline. Logistics and high-utilization fleets are more likely to lead than mainstream passenger cars.
The challenges facing hydrogen mobility echo broader trends in the automotive sector, where high fuel costs and infrastructure gaps shape consumer choices. Fuel prices’ impact on car ownership has been highlighted in places such as Hong Kong, where the cost of a full tank has soared past €200, adding pressure on alternative vehicle technologies.
As reported by elespanol motor, the future of hydrogen vehicles will likely depend on focused applications and regulatory support, with manufacturers needing to bring down costs. For now, the sector remains under pressure, even as government targets and long-term industry forecasts keep fuel-cell development on the agenda.
