Spain's stock market opened higher after a turbulent political weekend, but the early Ibex 35 rise later faded. Santander gained more than 4% on its Brazilian exposure, while Solaria fell as doubts grew over Spain's data centre decree.
By the time trading began, Spain had called general elections for 29 November and Brazil had produced a result welcomed by investors. The Ibex 35 rose about 0.48% to 0.7% at first. Much of that gain later disappeared. The opening jump did not last.
Santander led the advance. Its shares rose more than 4%, with market coverage putting the move at about 4.52%. Brazil's political result mattered directly because of the bank's large business there.
Investors saw the Brazilian result as a setback for a left-wing agenda they view as interventionist and potentially more expensive for banks. The presidential race is not over. A second round is still pending.
Financial stocks took the lead in Madrid. Reuters reported that Spanish government bonds stayed broadly stable. The early share move did not amount to a broad repricing of Spain's sovereign risk.
Флавио Болсонару не получил мандат в первом туре: второй тур против Луиса Инасиу Лулы да Силвы был назначен на 25 октября.
Brazil generates 22% of Santander's net interest margin and 15% of its net profit. That exposure gives the bank's shares a direct financial response to the prospect of avoiding a government that planned to raise taxes on banks.
Jefferies analysts described the election as a referendum on Brazil's fiscal path. Government spending affects inflation expectations and long-term interest rates. It also affects how much room the Central Bank of Brazil has to cut rates.
The Santander move is not a broad vote of confidence in the whole market. It is a focused response to the bank's exposure to Brazil.
That distinction matters.
Telefónica and Mapfre also benefited from their substantial business in Brazil. BBVA is another Spanish-listed group with significant exposure to the country. Their gains showed how quickly an overseas political result can move Spanish shares when large listed companies operate on the ground.
The reaction also brings currency, interest-rate and political risk in Brazil into focus. It does not amount to a uniform reassessment of Spain.
The data centre dispute created a separate divide inside the Ibex 35.
По оценке Jefferies, снижение ставки Selic на 100 базисных пунктов могло бы увеличить чистую процентную маржу бразильской дочерней компании Santander примерно на 70 млн евро. Поэтому для акций банка важны не только результаты выборов, но и будущие заявления о дефиците, налогах и государственных расходах.
Merlin rose on expectations that the Spanish government's proposed data centre decree may not advance. The measure included demanding energy requirements. Those rules could have made investment in Spain less attractive.
A softer outcome would remove a possible barrier to new projects. That explains the positive reaction around Merlin. The interpretation remains a market view. Available independent material does not confirm a final official text or a definitive government decision.
Solaria moved the other way. Its shares lost more than 3%.
Part of the market had viewed the company as a possible beneficiary of the decree because of its renewable energy requirements. The same rules could also have slowed investment in Spain. That would reduce opportunities for companies tied to the energy supply needed by data centres.
Those concerns weighed on Solaria's share price. An earlier analysis showed the issue in the wider political context around the election call: an earlier analysis.
Conditions elsewhere were less supportive. France remained the main source of pressure in Europe because investors doubt that its government can approve a €54 billion savings plan for 2027.
The plan targets a deficit of 5% of GDP in 2027, down from an estimated 5.4% in 2026. Political and social pressure is already severe. The CAC 40 was the weakest major European index during the session.
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