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INE Lowers Spain's Annual GDP Growth Forecast to 2.6%

INE Lowers Spain's Annual GDP Growth Forecast to 2.6% RUSSPAIN.com © russpain.com
INE Lowers Spain's Annual GDP Growth Forecast to 2.6% © russpain.com
Spain's economy grew 0.7% between April and June. The INE lowered annual GDP growth to 2.6%, while domestic demand kept the expansion going.

Spain's economy grew 0.7% in the second quarter of 2026, the strongest rate among the major eurozone economies. Growth continued despite geopolitical tensions and a renewed rise in inflation. The Instituto Nacional de Estadística also lowered year-on-year gross domestic product growth to 2.6%.

The quarterly result was 0.1 percentage points higher than the figure for the first three months of the year. It extended the run of quarter-on-quarter growth to 24 straight quarters.

The European Central Bank said the eurozone economy grew by 0.6% quarter on quarter in the second quarter of 2026, citing the latest Eurostat estimate. Spain so expanded faster than the currency union as a whole.

The INE breakdown shows where the growth came from: household consumption and investment were the basic supports. Domestic activity drove the latest expansion.

Domestic demand added 1.1 percentage points to quarterly GDP growth between April and June. External demand went the other way, subtracting half a percentage point from the result. Spending by households and other activity inside Spain carried growth, while weaker foreign demand pulled down the overall figure.

The INE figures carry two messages. Spain maintained a solid quarterly pace and outperformed the major eurozone economies on that measure. But the lower annual GDP figure shows that not every measure points to stronger growth.

The 2.6% year-on-year rate was 0.1 percentage points below the preliminary estimate. The change came from a recent statistical revision to earlier years, not weaker momentum in the latest quarter.

On September 23, the OECD raised its forecast for Spain's GDP growth in 2026 to 2.6%. It also lifted its inflation forecast for the country to 3.7%, pointing to continuing price risks alongside the expected economic strength.

The revision leaves the quarterly advance unchanged. It puts the year-on-year reading at 2.6% while the economy continues to post positive quarters. Growth remains steady and clearly dependent on domestic demand. The external sector held it back.

That distinction matters as geopolitical tensions continue and inflation rises again. The data point to neither a contraction nor a break in the expansion. They do show that the current pace depends more on activity inside Spain than on foreign demand. Other pressures also affect the country, including the concerns described in this earlier breakdown.

The ECB has called the eurozone economy resilient in the second quarter and pointed to differing results across member states. In that setting, Spain's stronger quarterly growth, supported by household consumption and investment, made domestic demand especially impressive to the country's performance.

The INE release leaves a clear picture. Spain's economy is still growing and remains ahead of the major eurozone economies. The 2.6% annual rate and the negative contribution from external demand make a full victory lap hard to justify.

Richard Reid RUSSPAIN.com
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Richard Reid

Richard Reid is the News Editor at RUSSPAIN.COM. He oversees editorial standards, source review and corrections and writes across general news, including politics, economics and social affairs.