Junts is distancing itself from the central government, but faces a critical choice. The party cannot back a no-confidence motion without risking electoral backlash. Growing polarization may undermine its traditional strategy.
Political tensions in Madrid have intensified as Junts, a key Catalan party in the Spanish Congress, signals its growing distance from the central government. In recent months, Junts has repeatedly emphasized its lack of support for Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, with parliamentary spokesperson Míriam Nogueras openly calling for an early end to the current legislative term. However, the party faces a strategic impasse: while it can withdraw support, it cannot back a no-confidence motion that would install Núñez Feijóo as prime minister, even if the goal is to trigger new elections.
This limitation has forced Junts into a complex balancing act. The party's leadership is aware that joining forces with the Partido Popular (PP) and Vox in a no-confidence vote would cross a red line for its electorate, potentially resulting in significant losses at the polls. Despite having played a decisive role in Sánchez's initial investiture, Junts now finds itself unable to bring down the government without risking its own political standing.
In response, Junts has floated the so-called “vía Starmer”—a procedural maneuver inspired by UK politics—but this option has gained little traction and is widely seen as unworkable. The move has highlighted the party's struggle to find a viable path to end the legislature without directly supporting the only mechanism that could topple the government: a formal no-confidence motion.
With the political landscape becoming increasingly polarized, Junts appears to be shifting into campaign mode. The party is expected to reprise its strategy from previous general elections, positioning itself as a pragmatic force that has extracted concessions from the government, while accusing Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC) of being too closely aligned with the PSOE. This approach, sometimes described as “peix al cove 2.0,” relies on the assumption that Junts will continue to hold a pivotal role in the next legislature—a prospect that is far from certain, given recent projections suggesting a decline in its parliamentary representation.
One of the main risks for Junts is that its attempt to remain equidistant between the PSOE and PP could alienate voters in an environment marked by sharp polarization. As the possibility of a right-wing coalition looms, the traditional Junts message of “ni dretes ni esquerres, Catalunya” may lose its appeal, especially if Sánchez frames the election as a choice between his government and a potential alliance of the two main right-wing parties. This ambivalence could prove costly for Junts, as voters may gravitate toward clearer alternatives in a high-stakes contest.
According to recent political barometers, including the upcoming CEO survey, Junts faces the possibility of diminished influence in the next Congress. The party's current predicament underscores the challenges faced by regional actors in a national arena increasingly defined by binary choices. In Spain's evolving political landscape, the ability of parties like Junts to maintain relevance may depend on their willingness to adapt strategies and respond to shifting voter expectations.
For context, Junts per Catalunya emerged as a significant force in Catalan and Spanish politics following the 2017 independence crisis. Its parliamentary leverage has often allowed it to negotiate key concessions from central governments. However, as Spain's party system becomes more fragmented and polarized, the space for nuanced positions is shrinking. The outcome of the next general election could reshape not only the balance of power in Madrid but also the future of Catalan influence at the national level.
