Both Madrid projections were published before the rail crash in Urda on 28 October. The collision near Urda, in Toledo province, involved a Renfe train and an Iryo train on the Madrid-Seville high-speed line. The crash killed 69 people and injured more than 80. These figures capture estimates made before the disaster; they do not show whether voter preferences changed afterward.
Sigma Dos’s poll for El Mundo, dated 19 October, puts the Partido Popular first with 15 seats. The Partido Socialista Obrero Español and Vox are each projected to win nine. Frente Amplio is assigned four seats, while Podemos is forecast to take one.
A post by Electodatos on X dated 21 October gives the same seat totals: PP 15, PSOE nine, Vox nine, Frente Amplio four and Podemos one. Compared with the 23 July 2023 election, PP and PSOE are each down one seat. Vox is up four, while Frente Amplio is down two and Podemos is up one.
The written account of the Electodatos estimate later gives a different breakdown, putting Vox on four seats and Frente Amplio on two. That conflicts with the figures in the post itself, which lists them at nine and four, respectively.
The election is scheduled for 29 November. The official campaign is due to begin at midnight on Friday 13 November and run until midnight on Friday 27 November. Saturday 28 November is the reflection day before voters choose representatives for Congress and the Senate.
A separate Sigma Dos national survey for El Mundo, conducted on 29 and 30 October after the crash, put the PP at 31.1% and the PSOE at 24.6%, with projected ranges of 133 to 139 and 97 to 103 seats, respectively. Vox was at about 19%, with a projection of 65 seats. Those national estimates are separate from the earlier Madrid seat projections.
