Brent's return above 100 dollars has coincided with declines in the Ibex 35 and major international markets, as investors weigh geopolitical risks and interest-rate expectations. Spain's basic index ended lower in a broad selloff that also hit Europe and the United States. Investors are watching the conflict around Iran and waiting for the next signals from the Federal Reserve.
Repsol was one of Madrid's clearest winners. Its shares rose as crude prices climbed. The move came after Donald Trump said the United States was considering a halt to diesel exports to control fuel costs. The effect on Spain would probably be limited, since diesel imports account for around 20% of national consumption. Renewed focus on the conflict still gave the energy company a lift. Reuters reported that the global diesel market was also facing a supply squeeze, with record refining margins and rising US diesel prices adding pressure across the energy sector.
Indra and Acerinox also finished higher. Most other Ibex 35 companies fell.
Solaria suffered the sharpest setback, dropping more than 5%. One possible reason is renewed concern that the Spanish government could restore the "excepción ibérica." Introduced in 2022, the mechanism was designed to limit gas prices and contain electricity costs. The fall also followed RBC's cut to Grenergy's target price, a move that appears to have spread weakness across other renewable-energy shares. Short sellers may have deepened the decline, given their high weight in the company's capital. ACS and Telefónica also posted impressive losses.
The selling has spread beyond Madrid. The DAX and CAC 40 also fell as investors focused on possible meetings at the United Nations summit. The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 weakened as Trump's threats toward Iran and hard-line tone suggested the conflict could last longer.
Data from Spain’s energy statistics system CORES showed that imported diesel accounted for less than 20% of national consumption in some periods of 2026. That points to a limited risk of a direct diesel shortage in Spain, even as international prices can still affect households and businesses.
The same prospect is putting pressure on government bonds. The yield on the US 10-year bond moved above 5%, while the 30-year yield reached 5.38%. Higher yields make life harder for heavily indebted companies and point to tougher financing conditions in the coming quarters. Reuters linked the rise in Treasury yields to expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve and signs that the US economy remained strong.
US PMI data added to the pressure, beating expectations. Markets saw the figures as evidence that the Federal Reserve has more room to raise rates because the economy remains strong. Fed decisions and statements have become central to the market's view of borrowing costs and risk valuations. Market pricing for an October rate increase rose from 55% yesterday to 71% today.
Energy costs are also putting more pressure on household budgets. An earlier energy report described how fuel and power bills were already squeezing Spanish farmers, hauliers, industry and self-employed workers.
Oil is setting the tone across several markets. Brent above 100 dollars is pushing up global inflation expectations. Gold and silver are falling as the prospect of higher rates grows. The dollar has gained support from rising crude prices.
Energy companies can benefit if the conflict lasts, while indebted businesses and renewable shares face higher yields and shifting policy expectations.
