The Ceuta crisis has sharply reduced PSOE’s lead over PP. Vox emerges as the biggest winner in the latest CIS poll. Podemos narrows the gap with Sumar as left-wing alliances shift.
Spain’s political scene has shifted quickly after the Ceuta border crisis. The latest CIS poll shows support for PSOE dropping, while Vox gains ground. The Socialists now lead the Partido Popular by just 5.5 points, down from nearly eight, as the government faces criticism over its response to the crisis.
Vox, which takes a strict line on immigration, has benefited most from the turmoil. The party’s support has risen by 1.3 points to 16.6%, making it the fastest climber in the poll. Santiago Abascal’s group stands out as the main winner from recent events. The Partido Popular has edged up by four tenths to 25.5%.
The September CIS barometer was based on 4,042 interviews conducted between September 1 and 4, immediately after the mass influx of migrants into Ceuta in late July.
The CIS survey, based on 4,000 interviews in early September, puts PSOE at 31%, down from 33% in July. While CIS still shows the Socialists ahead, most other polls disagree. Politico’s polling average, for example, has PSOE trailing PP by four points, with just 24% support. The gap between CIS and other pollsters has become a regular feature, as seen in recent coverage of Ceuta’s political fallout.
On the left, Podemos is gaining at Sumar’s expense. Podemos rises from 2.5% to 3.7%, while Sumar and its allies (excluding Podemos) drop from 6.1% to 5.7%. Together, they now reach 9.4%, down from 12.3% in 2023. Sumar’s future is unclear, with no clear candidate or unified platform, raising doubts about its ability to unite the left.
Se Acabó la Fiesta (SALF), led by Alvise Pérez, has seen support fall from 2.6% to 1.8%, making it less likely to enter the national parliament. Despite winning three seats in the European elections, SALF has not managed to enter regional legislatures in Aragón, Castilla y León, or Andalucía.
Multiple independent reports agree that the Ceuta crisis became a central political issue in Spain, intensifying criticism of the government even from coalition allies and fueling Vox’s rise. The CIS barometer is seen as a key test of the political consequences of the border events, with several sources noting that the left-wing bloc’s fragmentation—Podemos gaining while Sumar declines—raises questions about its future cohesion.
Adding up the numbers, the right-wing bloc—PP, Vox, and SALF—now holds 43.9% of the vote, ahead of the combined 40.4% for PSOE, Sumar, and Podemos. This shift highlights the government coalition’s vulnerability and the unstable nature of Spain’s political alliances.
The CIS data shows the cost of the government’s handling of the crisis for Pedro Sánchez. The Socialists are still nominally ahead, but their position is weaker, and Vox’s rise points to tougher attitudes on immigration and border control. The left’s divisions, especially the uncertainty around Sumar, leave the progressive side in a weaker spot. As the right consolidates and the government’s lead shrinks, the next few months will show whether PSOE can recover or if the Ceuta crisis will have a lasting impact on Spain’s political balance.
