In the wake of the Ceuta border crisis, the latest CIS poll puts PSOE at 31%, down from 33% in July. Its lead over the Partido Popular has narrowed to 5.5 points from nearly eight. The government has faced criticism over its response, including from coalition allies.
Vox, which takes a strict line on immigration, has gained most from the turmoil. Its support rose by 1.3 points to 16.6%, the largest increase in the poll. Santiago Abascal’s group is the clearest winner from recent events, while the Partido Popular edged up by four tenths to 25.5%. La Vanguardia reported that the crisis became a central political issue, sharpening criticism of the government and fueling Vox’s rise.
The September CIS barometer was based on 4,042 interviews conducted between September 1 and 4, immediately after the mass influx of migrants into Ceuta in late July. The survey, based on 4,000 interviews in early September, puts PSOE at 31%, down from 33% in July. CIS still shows the Socialists ahead, but most other polls disagree. Politico’s polling average, for example, has PSOE trailing PP by four points, with just 24% support. The gap between CIS and other pollsters has become a regular feature, as recent coverage of Ceuta’s political fallout shows.
On the left, Podemos is gaining at Sumar’s expense. Podemos rises from 2.5% to 3.7%, while Sumar and its allies, excluding Podemos, fall from 6.1% to 5.7%. Together, they now reach 9.4%, down from 12.3% in 2023. Sumar’s future is unclear: it has no clear candidate or unified platform, raising doubts about its ability to unite the left. The CIS barometer is also seen as a basic test of the political consequences of the border events. Meanwhile, fragmentation in the left-wing bloc raises questions about its future cohesion.
Se Acabó la Fiesta (SALF), led by Alvise Pérez, has seen support fall from 2.6% to 1.8%, making a place in the national parliament less likely. Despite winning three seats in the European elections, SALF has not entered regional legislatures in Aragón, Castilla y León, or Andalucía.
The right-wing bloc, PP, Vox, and SALF, now holds 43.9% of the vote, ahead of the combined 40.4% for PSOE, Sumar, and Podemos. The figures point to the government coalition’s vulnerability and instability in Spain’s political alliances.
The CIS data shows the political cost of the government’s handling of the crisis for Pedro Sánchez. The Socialists remain nominally ahead, but their position has weakened. Vox’s rise points to tougher attitudes on immigration and border control. Divisions on the left, especially uncertainty around Sumar, leave the progressive side in a weaker position.
