Spain’s latest poll signals a dramatic shift: the right-wing PP and Vox would surpass 200 seats in parliament, while Pedro Sánchez and the PSOE register their weakest numbers in years. The left faces a sharp drop in support amid mounting social unrest over housing.
A new Sigma Dos poll for EL MUNDO puts the right-wing PP and Vox alliance at 203 seats in Spain’s Congress, well above the 176 needed for a majority. Pedro Sánchez and the PSOE are projected to reach their lowest numbers of this legislature, amid public anger over housing and a series of political setbacks.
The PSOE would receive 25.6% of the vote, down 6.1 points from July 2023, and win 103 seats, 18 fewer than now. The party has lost 1.5 million voters in three years. The Zapatero investigation and the Ceuta crisis continue to weigh on it. Even with its former allies, Sánchez would be 35 seats short of a majority.
On October 2, the Spanish Congress rejected the government’s urgent housing measures after the PP, Vox and Junts voted against them. The defeat was a setback for Sánchez’s agenda, AP reported.
The Partido Popular, led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, would win 140 seats with 32.6% of the vote. Vox, led by Santiago Abascal, would rise to 63 seats, 30 more than last year. Vox has gained support in five consecutive polls. Together, the PP and Vox would receive 50.9% of the vote, their strongest showing in years.
Voters are switching sides: nearly 5% of those who backed Sánchez in 2023 now say they would vote for Vox, while the PP is attracting 8% of former PSOE voters. Sumar, the left-wing alternative, is at 6.6%; Podemos has edged up to 3.3%. Together, Sumar and Podemos would win just 11 seats, down from 31. The left’s national bloc would have 35.5% of the vote and 114 seats, compared with 44% and 152 seats in 2023.
Regional parties are not making up the difference for Sánchez. ERC, PNV and BNG would each gain a seat, while Adelante Andalucía would enter with two. Junts would lose ground, leaving the left far from power. The poll was conducted from September 22 to October 1, as housing protests swept Spain and just before new rumours of early elections.
Independent polling aggregators have put combined support for the PP and Vox at around 50-51% in recent months, though individual poll results vary. Le Monde and El Confidencial have also reported on the pressure facing Sánchez after the housing defeat.
Frustration over housing has become the basic issue. The fight over housing policy has put Sánchez under pressure to call a snap election. Protests continue, and the polls point to deep discontent.
Sigma Dos interviewed 2,116 people using a mixed method. The margin of error is ±2.2% at a 95.5% confidence level, and the data covers the whole country. Political loyalties are hardening, with fewer undecided voters, especially among PSOE and Sumar supporters.
Sánchez has 54 days left to call elections if he wants to act now. The window is closing as the right’s support rises, while the left has yet to turn protest into votes. Unless the government changes the narrative, Spain could face a major political shift; the left faces a reckoning it has not seen in decades.
