Spain’s latest poll signals a dramatic shift as the right-wing PP and Vox break the 200-seat barrier in parliament, leaving Pedro Sánchez and the PSOE at their weakest point in years. The left faces a collapse in support amid mounting social unrest over housing.
Spain’s political map just changed. The newest Sigma Dos poll for EL MUNDO puts the right-wing PP and Vox alliance at 203 seats in Congress. That’s well above the 176 needed for a majority. Pedro Sánchez and the PSOE are now staring at their lowest numbers of this legislature. Public anger over housing and a string of political blows have left the party reeling.
The numbers tell the story. PSOE would get only 25.6% of the vote. That’s down 6.1 points from July 2023. It means 103 seats—18 fewer than now. The party has lost 1.5 million voters in three years. The Zapatero investigation and the Ceuta crisis still haunt them. Even with old allies, Sánchez would be 35 seats short of a majority.
On October 2, the Spanish Congress rejected the government’s urgent housing measures after a coalition of PP, Vox, and Junts voted against them, marking a pivotal blow to Sánchez’s agenda.
The Partido Popular, led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, would take 140 seats with 32.6% of the vote. Vox, under Santiago Abascal, would jump to 63 seats. That’s 30 more than last year. Vox has now risen in five straight polls. Together, PP and Vox would hold 50.9% of the vote. The right hasn’t seen this kind of strength in years.
Voters are switching sides. Nearly 5% of those who backed Sánchez in 2023 now say they’d vote for Vox. The PP is pulling in 8% of former PSOE voters. Sumar, the left’s alternative, is stuck at 6.6%. Podemos has a small bump but only reaches 3.3%. Together, Sumar and Podemos would barely get 11 seats. That’s down from 31. The left’s national bloc would have just 35.5% of the vote and 114 seats. In 2023, they had 44% and 152 seats. That’s a steep fall.
Regional parties aren’t saving Sánchez. ERC, PNV, and BNG each pick up a seat. Adelante Andalucía enters with two. Junts loses ground. The math still leaves the left far from power. The poll ran from September 22 to October 1. It caught the mood just before new rumors of early elections and as housing protests swept Spain.
According to independent polling aggregators, the combined support for PP and Vox has remained stable at around 50–51% in recent months, confirming a sustained right-wing lead even as individual poll numbers fluctuate. This trend is echoed by several major Spanish and international outlets, including Le Monde and El Confidencial, which also highlight the growing pressure on Sánchez following the legislative defeat on housing.
Frustration over housing is now the main issue. As reported earlier, the fight over housing policy has put Sánchez under real pressure to call a snap election. The streets are restless. The polls show deep discontent.
The poll’s technical details matter. Sigma Dos interviewed 2,116 people using a mixed method. The margin of error is ±2.2% at a 95.5% confidence level. The data covers the whole country. Political loyalties are hardening. Fewer voters are undecided, especially among PSOE and Sumar supporters.
Sánchez has just 54 days left to call elections if he wants to move now. The window is closing. The right’s surge is real. It’s not just numbers. Voters are moving. The left can’t turn protest into support. Unless the government changes the story, Spain is heading for a major political shift. The right is set to dominate. The left faces a reckoning it hasn’t seen in decades.
