Spain is preparing for a new surge of extreme heat, with meteorological forecasts indicating that a third heatwave could push temperatures above 45°C in parts of the country next week. After a brief respite following the end of the summer’s second heatwave, atmospheric models point to an exceptionally warm air mass arriving on Sunday. The prospect follows a summer marked by repeated heat episodes: AEMET-related reporting recorded 61 heatwave days across mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands, the highest total in the available series and around 20 days above the previous record in 2022. The four episodes ran from 20 to 27 June and 2 to 24 July, followed by periods from 28 July to 20 August and 2 to 7 September.
Meteorologist Luismi Pérez has highlighted an alarming trend in current atmospheric models for the coming days. If the projections hold, the heat could surpass previous episodes, with maximum temperatures potentially exceeding 45°C in some regions. The risk is especially acute for older adults and children, as well as other vulnerable groups, because prolonged, intense heatwaves increase health hazards. Spain’s 2026 summer was reported as its warmest since the national temperature series began in 1961, with a mean temperature of 24.5°C. Agencia SINC also reported an estimate of 5,227 heat-attributable deaths in Spain during 2026, showing the serious public-health burden associated with extreme heat.
One basic indicator used to anticipate such events is the behavior of isotherms, lines on meteorological charts that connect points with equal temperatures at specific altitudes. Pérez says isotherms at 1,500 meters (850 hPa) are impressive for predicting surface heat, while those at 5,000 meters help gauge a heatwave’s overall strength. Over the past three decades, these isotherms have shifted significantly. Where readings of 18-20°C at 1,500 meters once translated to surface highs of 35-37°C, readings of 24-25°C at that altitude are now common, resulting in ground temperatures between 38 and 43°C.
The most worrying scenario involves isotherms approaching 30°C at 1,500 meters, a phenomenon that, until recently, was almost exclusive to the Sahara Desert. These extremely hot air masses are now reaching southern Europe more frequently, sometimes nearing southern France. Meteorological models suggest such conditions could materialize in Spain next week, potentially making this one of the summer’s most intense heat episodes. The impact of rising temperatures is being felt across Europe: a heat-mortality assessment reported an estimated 50,391 heat-attributable deaths during summer 2026, compared with an estimated 29,480 in 2022 and 28,462 in 2003. The estimate for 2025 was 24,572. These are modeled assessments, not direct counts from death certificates. During the Tour de France, organizers and teams have also had to adapt to extreme heat with special cooling measures. For example, cycling teams in France have recently implemented high-tech solutions to protect athletes from dangerous heat levels.
Temperatures are expected to drop temporarily between Friday and Saturday, before the new heatwave begins, offering a short-lived break from recent extreme conditions. Experts advise the public to monitor weather updates and follow health authority recommendations, particularly during the hottest hours of the day, to minimize risks. Regional figures show the scale of exposure: Aragón recorded 235 deaths attributed to excess heat during summer 2026, including 109 in July, while regional reporting counted 64 tropical nights and 23 days above 40°C.
Spain’s increasingly frequent and severe heatwaves reflect a broader trend across southern Europe. AEMET-related reporting ranked the July and August 2026 episodes among the three longest recorded since at least 1975; only the July 2015 event lasted longer than the July episode. The repeated heat also coincided with severe ozone pollution, reported at its highest level in Spain since 2010. Hot, stagnant conditions can accelerate the photochemical reactions that form ground-level ozone, adding respiratory risks to the direct effects of heat. The health sector has updated protocols for heat emergencies, while local authorities have expanded public cooling centers and issued targeted alerts for at-risk populations. As extreme conditions recur, residents and institutions face the ongoing challenge of protecting those most vulnerable to heat.
