Spain may grow faster in 2026 while many households become poorer in real terms. The OECD forecasts 2.6% economic growth and expects prices to rise by 3.7% this year and 3.4% next year. It also expects growth to slow to 1.8% in 2027, testing household purchasing power as the current expansion loses pace.
Santiago Niño Becerra made that distinction on La Ventana. His assessment is blunt: a higher gross domestic product does not guarantee better living standards for most people. The gains may instead go to companies and people with legal tax tools to absorb inflation.
Employees have fewer ways to protect their incomes. Independent forecasts also put Spain's 2026 inflation rate above the expected eurozone average of about 3.0%. That raises the risk that higher prices will weaken household demand even as the economy expands. Funcas has previously warned that inflation could stay high in the coming months, putting average inflation for 2026 at about 3.6%. The OECD also raised its estimate of Spain's core inflation to 3.4% for 2026, signaling persistent price pressure beyond a temporary shock caused by energy costs.
The pressure is visible beyond household budgets. Galicia's shellfish sector has endured several campaigns with low profits. It sold 3,742 tonnes in 2025. In 2015, the volume was more than twice as high, information from data presented in the programme. More precise official figures cited in independent reporting put the 2025 volume of fresh bivalve shellfish sold through Galician fish markets at 3,742,212 kilograms, compared with 7,776,585 kilograms in 2015. Official Galician market data show a 51.9% decline between 2015 and 2025. The decade-long fall points to a structural problem affecting coastal communities and related employment, rather than an isolated poor season.
The decline has been linked to lower salinity, pollution and climate change. The problem reaches beyond one coastal activity. For Niño Becerra, it shows the weakness of an economic model that keeps tying expansion to environmental damage.
The economist pointed to studies showing a link between carbon dioxide emissions and gross domestic product. That does not mean every increase in GDP automatically produces the same environmental result, but it puts the current growth model under pressure. Cutting pollution would require major investment in cleaner technologies. No viable alternative capable of drastically reducing contamination has been identified.
The figures connect two problems often reported separately: inflation reduces what salaries can buy, while environmental damage is shrinking a productive sector in Galicia. The OECD's projection has already been reported in an earlier forecast, but the sharper question is what kind of growth reaches households and lasts in regions that depend on natural resources. The OECD's revised inflation outlook has also been linked to renewed energy risks, which can push up consumer prices and further cut real incomes.
That is why the 2.6% figure cannot stand alone. Growth alongside 3.7% inflation offers limited protection to wage earners. The fall from more than twice the 2025 shellfish volume in 2015 also shows the cost of an economy tied to polluted and changing environments. Spain cannot measure success through GDP alone when purchasing power is falling and a traditional Galician sector is shrinking under environmental pressure. A separate S&P estimate is more cautious, putting Spain's 2026 growth at 2.4% and inflation at 3.2%.
