Spain's housing deficit could exceed one million homes by 2028 if current trends continue. Banco de España deputy governor Soledad Núñez issued the warning at the Forbes Economic Summit. She said demand is not the problem: residential construction is failing to keep up.
The institution had been working with an estimated shortfall of around 750,000 homes. Between 2026 and 2028, that gap could grow by another 300,000 dwellings, pushing the total beyond one million.
CaixaBank Research, drawing on data from Spain’s INE and the Ministry of Transport, estimated that the gap between new households and permits for new construction reached almost 98,000 homes over the latest 12-month period.
The pressure is already showing in the part of the market that matters most to households: access to housing.
New households formed amid rising migration are adding to demand, but construction has not kept pace. Cranes are far less common than during the expansion before the property bubble. The shortage is pushing prices higher and widening the gap between household earnings and home prices. Savills puts the current deficit at about 755,000 homes and says it could pass 850,000 by the end of 2027.
Núñez singled out younger people and new residents as groups finding it harder to buy. The cost of buying a home is rising faster than household income, she said. The trend dates back decades: since 1980, real disposable income in Spain has multiplied by 1.8, while real house prices have multiplied by 3.5.
One industry estimate puts the number of permits for new homes issued in 2026 at 141,135, well below the rate at which new households are forming.
The comparison with the euro area makes the gap clearer. Real disposable income there has multiplied by 1.6 since 1980, while real house prices have multiplied by 1.8. In Spain, property values have risen much faster, helping explain why homes have become less affordable even as incomes have grown.
El Debate, citing Núñez's remarks, also reported that real home prices in Spain had reached levels comparable with 2005 because supply was too limited.
The housing warning comes as domestic demand remains an impressive part of the economy, as described in an earlier economic report. Stronger demand cannot solve a market where the basic problem is the number of homes available at prices households can afford.
Independent research shows the scale of the construction task. OBS Business School estimates that the accumulated shortfall has been around 740,000 homes since 2021. It says more than 230,000 homes a year would be needed to make a meaningful dent in the deficit.
Núñez also discussed changes in financial intermediation. She said savings should go toward productive investment and questioned whether neobanks and other fast-growing intermediaries always direct funds that way. She called for clearer information about where their money goes, alongside greater transparency. Stronger supervision, she said, would keep risks from moving outside the banking system.
Private credit is growing across information technology and professional services, with manufacturing also attracting investment. The Bank of Spain views the wider range of financing sources positively. It also notes that a impressive share of the money comes from funds outside the euro area and that lending is heavily concentrated among the biggest providers. The financial sector will help fund technological change, but it will also need to distinguish projects with real productive potential from expectations that may be hard to sustain.
For young people and new residents, the shortage has a concrete consequence: fewer chances to buy a home.
