Warm days and scattered rain are shaping the start of autumn in Spain, while winter’s chill remains some way off. September is ending, but widespread snow is not yet in the forecast.
Anyone waiting for a quick shift to chilly weather will have to wait longer. Forecasts show mild temperatures sticking around for weeks. Rain will come only now and then, with the heaviest showers in the west and south. The east may stay dry and see calmer weather. Spain’s national weather agency, AEMET, puts the chance that September to November 2026 will be warmer than usual at 60-70%. The odds of a colder autumn are just 10%. AEMET spokesperson Rubén del Campo has said most of Spain is likely to see a warm autumn. For the week of September 21 to 27, AEMET forecasts a “fully summer-like” pattern, with temperatures well above normal and scarce rainfall across most of Spain.
Jorge Rey, who shares weather forecasts on YouTube, has updated his outlook using the cabañuelas method. In his latest update on September 21, he said: “The first impressions lead us to think that winter would be warm but quite rainy.” Rey expects storms at the end of September to move toward North Africa, barely touching the mountains of Murcia and Alicante. A strong anticyclone will keep the west warmer. Some weak showers could still appear in the west, and a short burst of cooler air may reach the north.
October looks set to continue this uneven pattern. Rey sees more heat in the west and haze in the Canary Islands. Around October 9, stormy showers could move in from the west and head toward the Mediterranean during the Pilar holiday. After that, a wave of African air may bring warmth back to the east. The Cantabrian coast could get light rain and more clouds. The biggest change is expected on October 23 to 24, when an Atlantic front could bring rain and storms to the north and center. As October ends, temperatures should rise again, except in the western Cantabrian area, where some rain may linger. AEMET’s rainfall outlook is highly uneven. The northwest, including Galicia and parts of Castilla y León, is likely to have a wetter-than-normal autumn; northern Extremadura is also in that forecast. Precipitation patterns across the rest of Spain are much more uncertain. In Andalusia, the probability of a warmer-than-usual autumn reaches 60%, rising to 70% in the eastern part of the region.
November is forecast to be the wettest month of early autumn. Rey expects a run of Atlantic fronts between November 3 and 9, bringing heavy rain to the west. The northern Mediterranean, including Catalonia, could see a separate rain episode. The cabañuelas method also points to a DANA, an isolated high-altitude depression, around November 14, followed by strong storms in the Levante. The second half of November should bring Atlantic storms, while warmth persists in the Mediterranean and rain falls in the northwest. By November 25, more storms could hit the west. Another front around November 27 may lower temperatures and bring the first snow at higher elevations.
December is expected to start mild, though some fronts could still reach the Cantabrian region. The first real winter chill is forecast for around December 9. Rain is expected in the north and center, with heavy snow in the mountains. The first flakes at mid-altitude may follow, then frost. Another northern front is likely around December 16, after which the weather should settle. Christmas is expected to be sunnier and more pleasant, but rain could return to eastern Spain at the end of 2026.
For now, the classic Spanish autumn of cold mornings and early snow remains out of reach. Instead, Spain faces a season of contrasts: warmth is lingering, while rain is split unevenly across the country. As the weather continues to shift, regional conditions will shape daily life and travel, as well as the outlook for farming.
