The question of what will happen to the Spanish real estate market in 2026 is on the minds of not only potential buyers, but also renters, investors, and even developers themselves. After a tumultuous 2025, when property sale prices surged by nearly 16.5% and rents rose by 5.8%, the outlook appears increasingly uncertain. On one hand, the supply of new apartments is shrinking while the population continues to grow. On the other, economic instability and legislative changes are adding fuel to the fire. Amid these circumstances, industry experts are trying to forecast how the situation will unfold in the coming years.
This article compiles insights from leading market specialists who analyze key trends and possible scenarios. While their opinions don’t always align, they all agree on one thing: the market is in for a tough stress test. Housing shortages, rising prices, new rules of the game — together they create a unique situation that Spain has never faced before.
Which factors will ultimately determine the price per square meter? How will demand for rentals and property purchases change? And should we expect a repeat of the events of 2008? These are the questions not only professionals are asking, but also ordinary citizens, for whom housing is becoming less and less affordable.
Shortage and growth
AMADEI Secretary Jesús Manuel Martínez Caja is convinced that in 2026, Spain will face an acute housing shortage. Although the number of building permits is expected to rise by about a third compared to 2024, the gap between supply and demand will remain. According to his estimates, the country will be lacking around 600,000 apartments. This will drive prices up further — by about 3% a year, while the number of transactions is expected to fall as the economy slows.
Martínez Caja notes that even lower interest rates and rising household incomes will not fully make up for the shortage. The problem will be especially severe in major cities, where populations are growing fastest. In his view, the market is unlikely to stabilize before 2027, when new projects and support measures begin to take effect.
A New Housing Bubble Looming
Economist and market psychology expert Vicenç Hernández Reche believes Spain is headed for a new, but different, wave of market overheating compared to 2008. He predicts prices will continue to rise in 2026, though not as sharply as in previous years. The number of transactions is expected to grow by 4–6%, but the pace will be slower than in 2025.
The main threats to the market are a potential interest rate hike by the European Central Bank, rising mortgage costs, higher construction expenses, and bureaucratic barriers. Hernández Reche notes that housing affordability will remain a challenge for most families, especially in large cities. If the economic outlook worsens, the market could face a new wave of instability.
Focus on the luxury segment
Damian Hetch, a partner at Walter Haus, points to sustained demand in the premium segment. He says that investment inflows from Latin America and other countries are keeping luxury property prices high, especially in Madrid and Catalonia. However, Hetch warns: without long-term government programs to develop infrastructure and incentivize construction, the situation could deteriorate further.
He criticizes short-term and populist measures which, in his view, only worsen the shortage. At the same time, new tax rules in Catalonia could constrain supply and affect the entire regional market. Nevertheless, experts do not anticipate sharp price drops—unless major external economic shocks occur.
Trends and innovations
The head of the Inviertis platform, Rebeca Pérez, predicts that the market will move toward greater stability in 2026. She expects moderate price growth, the gradual introduction of new technologies, and a stronger focus on environmental sustainability. Limited supply will persist, while government policy and interest rate dynamics will remain key factors.
Pérez is confident that the sector will undergo a profound transformation over the next ten years. Demographic shifts, digitalization, and sustainable development will be decisive for the success of companies and investors. Those who adapt quickly will gain a competitive edge in the market.
Mortgage market and affordability
Luis Pérez, CEO of donpiso, takes an optimistic view of the outlook. He notes that since autumn 2024, sales and prices have been rising, and this trend will continue into 2026, albeit less intensely. In his opinion, if fixed mortgage rates remain below 3%, the number of transactions will keep growing.
Pérez points out that despite nominal prices returning to 2007–2008 levels, adjusted for inflation, housing is still 40% cheaper. According to him, this sets the current situation apart from the previous bubble and reduces the risk of a sharp downturn.
Demand and negotiations
José María Alfaro, president of the Federación de Asociaciones Inmobiliarias (FAI), expects that sales will remain high in 2026, although not reaching the record levels seen in 2025. At the same time, housing and rental prices in major cities will continue to grow at double-digit rates.
Alfaro believes that if low interest rates persist, demand will gradually begin to decline due to high prices. This will lead to longer selling periods and expand negotiation opportunities between buyers and sellers.
If you’re not familiar, AMADEI is the Association of Real Estate Agents of Madrid, bringing together the leading professionals on the market. Walter Haus is a major agency specializing in luxury real estate in Spain. Inviertis is a digital platform for residential rental investment. Donpiso is one of the oldest real estate agency networks in the country. FAI is the Federation of Real Estate Associations, representing industry professionals at the national level.
