A new drama has unfolded in the Spanish parliament: former Transport Minister José Luis Ábalos has been placed in pre-trial detention by order of Judge Leopoldo Puente. This development took the lower house by surprise, as Ábalos, elected from Valencia in 2023, still holds his seat even amid criminal prosecution. His political career began back in 2009, and now, years later, he finds himself at the center of a high-profile scandal.
Immediately after the Supreme Court’s decision to jail Ábalos without bail was made public, the Congress leadership sent an official request to the court. The goal is to obtain confirmation of the preventive measure and the corresponding ruling, in order to initiate the temporary suspension procedure for the MP’s duties. This is stipulated by Article 21.2 of the Congress regulations, and it is exactly this clause that lawmakers are now referring to.
The question of what will happen to Ábalos’s parliamentary seat is on everyone’s mind. Will he lose his status as an elected representative? How will the balance of power in parliament shift? The answers aren’t as straightforward as they might seem.
Suspension of powers: What this means for Ábalos
According to current regulations, a deputy who is in custody automatically loses the right to participate in parliamentary work but retains their mandate. This means Abalos will not be able to vote, speak from the podium, or receive a salary. However, his name will remain on the list of Congress members, and he will formally remain a deputy until he is officially stripped of this status or resigns.
The rules clearly state that three conditions are required to suspend duties: the chamber’s consent to open criminal proceedings, a court order to prosecute, and placement in custody. In Abalos’s case, as parliamentary administration officials note, this is a so-called ‘summary proceeding’ where a separate order for prosecution is not required. Therefore, the procedure to suspend his rights will begin immediately after all the necessary court documents are received.
A meeting of the Congress leadership can be held remotely at any time to quickly decide on the deputy’s temporary suspension. After this, Abalos will lose all privileges associated with his status, although he will formally remain a member of parliament. If he is released from custody, his rights will be restored automatically.
Impact on the parliamentary majority
The main question being debated in political circles now is whether the balance of power in the lower house will shift following the arrest of Ábalos. In practice, his absence won’t change the number of MPs: calculations will still be based on 350 seats, even if one of them does not participate in voting. This is confirmed not only by the regulations but also by precedents from previous years.
A similar situation occurred in 2019 with four deputies involved in the Catalan process case. At that time, Congress leadership decided that even when MPs are temporarily suspended, they remain part of the chamber, and decision-making still requires a majority of the total number of seats. Therefore, an absolute majority still requires 176 votes.
In Ábalos’s case, unless he gives up his mandate, his absence will only complicate the work of parliament, where every vote is crucial. Any mistake or absence could lead to unexpected outcomes during voting, especially if the chamber is evenly divided between the two opposing blocs.
Implications for political life and possible scenarios
Several scenarios are possible. If Ábalos decides to resign his mandate voluntarily, the next candidate on the list will take his seat and the balance of power could shift. However, for now, his absence only adds uncertainty to an already complex political situation.
Another interpretation is also possible: the Congress leadership could recalculate the total number of deputies, reducing it to 349, but in practice this approach is not applied. All decisions are made based on the full composition of the chamber, even if some deputies are temporarily absent.
As a result, despite the high-profile arrest, the balance of power in parliament remains unchanged. However, political instability is mounting, as every vote becomes critical for passing key decisions. When a majority is secured by only a narrow margin, the absence of even one deputy can prove decisive.
Earlier, we discussed this topic in our article “The Possible Arrest of a Deputy: Will the Majority Rule in the Spanish Congress Change?”. At the time, there was discussion about how the possible detention of Ábalos might affect vote counting and the balance of power in parliament. The article also explored historical precedents and expectations from the Supreme Court’s decision.
