The political situation in Andalusia is becoming increasingly tense. Corruption investigations involving the Socialists and issues within the healthcare system have significantly affected the balance of power ahead of the regional elections. Vox is gaining popularity, while the position of the People’s Party (Partido Popular, PP), led by Juanma Moreno, is under threat. The Socialists, headed by María Jesús Montero, are losing support—even though polls were conducted before the high-profile arrests and new details in the corruption cases emerged.
Recent data show that the PP is still in the lead, but its advantage is shrinking. The party can expect 53–55 seats in parliament, putting their absolute majority at risk. This is a significant drop compared to previous results, especially in light of the scandal at the Servicio Andaluz de Salud (SAS) related to errors in the early breast cancer detection program.
Vox’s Rise
Vox, led in the region by Manuel Gavira, is showing steady growth. Over the past three months, the party’s rating has increased by 1.6 points, and even more over the past six months. They now have 17.5% support, which could earn them 19 to 22 seats in parliament. This result makes them a key player in upcoming government formation talks if the PP fails to maintain a majority.
Interestingly, despite its own corruption scandals, the PP has not lost as much ground as might have been expected. However, the overall climate of dissatisfaction and fatigue with the two leading parties is pushing some voters toward alternatives. Vox has become the main beneficiary of this shift, strengthening its position not only in Andalusia but across the country.
Socialists losing ground
The Socialist Party (PSOE) continues to lose voters’ trust. Since September, its rating has dropped by almost two points, now standing at 21.4%. This means the gap with the PP remains significant—almost 19 points. In parliament, the Socialists could win between 25 and 28 seats, which is notably fewer than their current representation.
The drop in ratings is taking place amid corruption cases involving former high-ranking party members, as well as growing dissatisfaction with the state of healthcare. Even before the arrest of José Luis Ábalos and the escalation of the Paco Salazar case, the downward trend in support was already evident.
The situation on the left flank
Radical left-wing parties have failed to capitalize on the crisis among the major players. Por Andalucía has lost half a percent and can expect to win 5–6 seats, roughly matching its results from 2019. Adelante Andalucía has also slipped slightly, polling at 6.1% and targeting 2–3 seats. Podemos is expected to run independently, but the poll does not reflect their figures.
Thus, despite internal issues within the PP and PSOE, none of the left-wing parties have managed to significantly increase their support. Voters disillusioned with traditional parties are increasingly turning their attention to right-wing populists.
The region’s main problems
For the first time in years, healthcare has become the most pressing issue for residents of Andalusia. More than 22% of respondents named this sector as their main source of concern, surpassing even unemployment and housing difficulties. Corruption and political apathy are also among the most significant problems, but they rank behind healthcare and employment.
When asked which party is best equipped to handle these challenges, the majority of respondents chose Vox. They are followed by PSOE and PP, with only a minimal gap between the two. This reflects a general distrust of traditional political forces and a growing demand for change.
Assessment of government performance
More than half of the region’s residents view the Andalusian government’s performance negatively in recent years. Some 56.8% believe the PP has done poorly or very poorly, while only 39.9% rate its performance positively. Similar numbers apply to Moreno himself: 55.8% are dissatisfied with his work, while 41.2% support him.
Nevertheless, Moreno remains the most popular candidate for head of government, backed by 33.1% of respondents. Montero is in second place with 19.4%, and the leader of Adelante Andalucía, José Ignacio García, unexpectedly takes third with 7.1%.
